How to Choose a Fantasy Baseball Closer

How to Choose a Closer that is Probable to Pitch
By Adam of Rotopicks.com

The highest risk vs reward decision in daily fantasy baseball leagues is choosing a closer. The risk is zero points when your closer does not pitch. The reward is a highly valued save. So, clearly the most important factor in choosing a closer (even more important than each respective closer's skills) is the probability for a save opportunity.

There are many tricks of the trade in choosing a closer. Here are some that will enhance the probability that a particular closer will pitch:

1. Avoid ALL closers who are in a platoon situation, with an uncertain, definitive closer. For obvious reasons, a platoon role (bullpen by committee) is impossible to predict and even if the team finds itself in a save situation, you cannot be certain to choose the right closer of that bullpen. This sort of news will be very easy to spot. Do not use depth charts as they tend to rely on naming only one closer, even if that closer is not the official, sole holder of the role. Simply check team news as well as fantasy sports bullpen articles.

2. Avoid any closer who pitched yesterday. More often than not, closers tend to get a day off after an outing the previous day. Sure, there are plenty of exceptions, but choosing a closer who got work in yesterday simply diminishes your odds of a save opportunity.

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3. ONLY use a closer's stats when you're stuck choosing among closers with the same probability for an outing. In other words, getting a save opportunity is much more important than picking the most talented closer. Keep your eyes on the prize: a save OPPORTUNITY. So, it also follows that you can often choose a cheap closer, as long as you believe that closer will have an opportunity.

4. Find a winning team. Check out the Vegas odds on all games for that day. Start looking at closers (with tips #1 - 3 in mind) that play for the teams that are most heavily favored that day. Do not worry about a team winning by more than 3 runs. Those aren't save opportunities, but winning by more than 3 runs is more uncommon than you might think. Finding a closer on a winning team is the only important factor.

5. Avoid a losing team. This is simply the inverse of tip #4. Try to avoid closers on teams who are underdogs for that day. Especially big underdogs (+150 or worse).

6. Use closers on teams who are starting a pitcher who tends to go deep into games. When a starting pitching stud tends to pitch deep into ballgames, you do not have to worry about middle relief pitchers blowing leads. The best thing for a team, manager, and fantasy sports player is a starting pitcher who goes 8 strong innings, then a closer who comes in the shut down the opposition in the ninth. It's nice and clean.

7. When options are limited at the closer position, choose a closer who has not pitched in a while. The second best thing to a save for a closer is a non-save outing. Closers need to be in a rhythm. Managers often have to use them in non-save situations to keep them in that rhythm. A closer who has not pitched for while is a prime candidate for action, regardless of the game situation. At least it holds some value with stats like IP, K, ERA, etc.

8. As I say with all players in a daily fantasy game, avoid any closer pitching in a game with bad weather conditions. Bad weather conditions simply decrease our probability that a closer will pitch because of the chance for a game postponement due to weather.

9. If you've followed the first 8 tips and are still left with a wide variety of closers, and salary cap is not an issue, another good tip is to check the daily Vegas lines, and circle all teams that are favored by -150 or more at home. Then check up on those team's closers, heeding to tips #1 through 8. Choose any one of them, but preferably choose the cheapest closer so you can fill out the rest of your roster with as much salary as possible. A CL pitching in a big ballpark doesn't hurt either.

So, to sum it up: to find a closer with the greatest probability to pitch, avoid any closers in a closer by committee situation, avoid closers who pitched yesterday, don't worry about stats, stick to winning teams (preferably teams favored by -150 or more at home), steer clear of bad weather games, look for closers who haven't pitched in a while, and try to use a closer whose team is using an ace starting pitcher that goes deep into games.

Good luck and as always, thanks for reading!

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