Day Games vs. Night Games Statistical Splits Strategy

Day Game vs. Night Game Statistical Splits Strategy
by Ray of RotoPicks.com

You would not think that the time of day when a game is played would be important. But as with everything else in daily fantasy baseball leagues it is and it cannot be ignored. Although it is not the most important thing to think about, it should factor into your decision making when you are drafting your roster.

This is more about the advantage or disadvantage of a player taking the field for a matinee than for a night game. The majority of games are played at night, so that forms the basis of your thinking. There are some factors here that are purely statistical and easily quantifiable. That is something more readily available and likely a part of your current decision making process. It is also likely part of your opponent's decision making process. While it might not give you a substantial edge, it still must be considered. However, there are some other things to keep in mind that are not as easily seen through statistics. Let's take a look at a few of those:

• The obvious point to be made here, is to check the statistics. Do not take them purely at face value, but check the splits on how both pitchers and hitters have performed during the day and at night. It is possible there is a substantial difference in these stats. Not every hitter likes hitting during the day when the sun is out or if there are potentially shadows. Those same shadows could improve or enhance a pitcher's specific skill set. Perhaps an afternoon game disrupts the routine for some starting pitchers, while for others it works to their advantage. The same could be said for a hitter. Some are also going to react adversely to playing in a day game after a night game. They might not have time to recover properly or to mentally bounce back for a game so soon. The effects of this will be illustrated and proven throughout their career in a statistical trend which is readily available (Yahoo Sports player profiles are a great free source.) Use this information as one of the factors in your thought process. There are other statistical trends that do and should carry more weight. Also pay more attention to the most recent stats.
• Pitchers facing teams that played the night before do have a slight advantage. This is not something that I am going to proclaim as a huge factor, but it is something to think about. Often times teams do use day games after a night game to rest their starters and veteran players. With the quick turnaround, it just makes sense. This is more common with older players, but it is something to think about when selecting your pitcher. Chances are that a pitcher facing a few backups will perform better. Also, that pitcher likely was resting and getting prepared for their start hours ago, while the opposing batters were in the midst of another game.
• Players are obviously human. There are scenarios for all teams during the season where they get into a city in the early morning hours after a game, only to have another game to play that night. Starting pitchers are usually immune to this as they often travel ahead of the team, but that is not the case for the rest of the team. These are professionals we are talking about here so there should not be a dip in performance, but in some cases it is understandable that there would be. The advantage here goes to the pitcher.
• Catchers and closers are the two positions where an adverse impact is felt the most. Both are high stress positions and the positions that will often times be rested in a day game after a night game situation. A lot of times you can find information from the media about whether or not said player will be available, but just be aware that in a lot of situations, games like this are a perfect off day. You can just look in another direction, or you can try to save some money and select their backup instead, if that player is available. Only do this if you have confirmation that the backup will be playing, but this is a perfect way to save some money in your budget. Backups are often, and for good reason, less costly options. If you can pinpoint when they are going to see action and your analysis supports their production, then they are good options.

Dealing with day games can be put into two different categories. Some players perform better during the day as opposed to at night. The opposite can also be true. This could be for a multitude of reasons, but is based mostly on statistical evidence. Also, the case of day games after night games must be analyzed. That is a less obvious conclusion to draw, but could potentially be more valuable. It is important to keep in mind when determining if a specific player will be playing and since it presents opportunities for lower valued backups, there is added value there.

This statistic might not be the most important factor to consider, and you have to guard against information overload when making your roster decisions, but it is still something to consider. Every point matters and no stone should be left unturned. This includes the time of the game and the time of the game from the day before. By adding this variable to your daily fantasy baseball handicapping arsenal, you will be gaining a slight edge necessary to produce long term profits. After all, how many times have you lost by a point or two? Even worse, is to be watching the game and the announcer makes some random comment about how a player you picked is hitting .200 in day games during the current season. This is excrutiating to hear and was easily preventable had you taken the time to do your homework. Sharp daily fantasy MLB players employ this strategy. You will need to as well if you want to have a shot of coming in the money on a consistent basis.

Hungry for more daily fantasy baseball strategy? Check out John's killer article on MLB GPP Strategy!

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