Handicapping Daily Fantasy Baseball

Handicapping Daily Fantasy Baseball
By John of RotoPicks.com

In many ways, looking at the daily salaries for baseball players reminds me of swapping baseball cards out at recess when I was in Elementary school. Just as I used to hang onto that Donruss Rated Rookie Ken Griffey Jr. card because I thought it was worth something more than the Beckett Guide told me, is the same way I lock into certain players on a given night. Each player has a salary but the question flares "Is there value?" each time I look at them. How do you assess value? Do I feel the player can outperform their salary on that given night? There are several things I look at to help me answer that question. Here are the most important 5 factors to me:

Location

Where is he playing? There is a lot of variance in ballparks in the majors. Certain parks are bigger than others, some are hitter-friendly and some are pitcher-friendly. I am a sucker for taking NL West pitchers due to the cavernous dimensions of some of their parks....but do not think for a minute that I prefer to play them in Coors Field or Chase Field when they're on the road in Colorado or Arizona.

On the flip-side, hitters like Cargo or Kubel are not near as an attractive play in Petco as they are when they're home. Some players have a tendency to play much better at home. Checking splits out will point out significant differences if they exist.

I like playing hitters in homer-happy parks like Camden Yards or Great American as well. Even when taking cheap fillers for your roster, location should come into play. Guys from the Mariners are usually cheap for a reason. They don't score a lot of runs in the Grand Canyon-like Safeco Field. Avoid them when they're in their home whites.

Weather

Believe it or not weather does play a part in selecting players. Wind can be your friend or enemy depending on whether it's blowing out or in. Have you ever seen games at Wrigley when there is a double digit mph wind blowing out towards left field? It can imitate a slow pitch softball game in a small field. Likewise, rainy weather often leads to poorer offense. It just seems to be that when there are delays or rain coming down, that hitters aren't as patience or focused. Warmer weather is of course a boon to hitting home runs. Balls seem to carry out much easier in mid-90 degree July nights than they do in April or late September. A strong wind (10+ mph) blowing out in a hitters park is sure to catch my eye. I will likely have 2 or 3 power hitters from that game at a minimum in my lineup.

Likewise, a powerful wind blowing in will likely mean I will pass on the sluggers in that game, but it does mean I will take a good look at the pitchers in that contest.

Lastly, home games for the Brewers, D Backs and Blue Jays are worth keeping an eye on if the weather looks too wet or too hot (Arizona). Most of the time this means the roof is closed, and the ball has a tendency to carry more in the controlled climate indoors. More often or not I have seen more homers in these games with the roof closed than when it is opened.

Odds

No, Vegas doesn't know everything... but the daily odds on the MLB games are something I am going to check multiple times during the day. Obviously, hitters need to be looked at heavily when you see totals over 9. Likewise, pitching with totals of 7 or less should be emphasized. When you see some games in Texas where the Rangers aren't too heavily favored (-150 or less) yet the total is still high.....you may want to take a good look at the road team for hitters. Chances are they aren't going to be too expensive depending on where they just played. I have had great luck taking hitters from Oakland and Seattle visiting Arlington after a long home stand.

As far as the odds go, if you see drastic line changes it is worth trying to find out why. Money coming in heavily in one direction on the odds doesn't guarantee anything but is definitely worth taking into consideration when deciding on similar players.

Lastly, wins from starting pitchers can give you those few points that separate winning from losing for your team on any given night. A heavy favorite should always get the nod over an underdog pitcher....he just has a much greater chance of getting the W.

History

There are several different branches off of this area......history in that park, history against the pitcher, history against that team (for pitchers). I like to take sluggers that have hit several home runs as a visitor. The way I see it is that if he has seen the ball go over the fence a few times, he feels pretty comfortable swinging there.

BvP (batter vs. pitcher) statistics need to be looked at for any outliers....both good and bad. Some hitters simply own pitchers and vice versa. Confidence is a key component in the grind of MLB baseball, and when a batter is 12 for 25 against a pitcher with 5 extra base hits then there is a good chance he does some damage that night also.

Likewise, avoid guys that have extremely low averages against a pitcher that have faced them 20+ times. I can almost guarantee that pitcher looks at him as an easy out and mows them down more often then not. I took Evan Longoria in a game earlier this week against Matt Harrison (this article written in 2012) as his previous numbers against him were outstanding both in average and power. In his 2nd at bat Longoria homered. BvP statistics can be very helpful but make sure that they are recent. Some pitchers have been around a long time. I am not nearly afraid of taking a guy against Randy Wolf today if he has poor career numbers against hIm. Uncle Randy has lost a lot of zip on his ball these days and can be hit a lot easier then he could be as a Dodger in years past.

Recent Play

A player's salary can increase if he is playing very well. Sometimes it can get too high. For example, in September of 2012 Mark Reynolds was on a homer binge but I am going to have issues taking a guy that whiffs as much as Reynolds does at such a high salary.

As for pitchers, sometimes a guy like Paul Maholm can get on a roll and win a few games in a row....but do you really want to spend top dollar for a guy that doesn't have a great K rate? I like to look for guys with great matchups that aren't necessarily ice cold, but just haven't had a big game in awhile. These guys have a tendency to have low salaries and you can hop on board before their market swings back the other way. If a hitter is red hot and yet their price is still reasonable you almost have to take them. So many batters are streaky and can get locked in for several games in a row, it's best to enjoy the ride before they cool down. I call medium priced hot players C.Y.A (cover your butt) players as many times your opponents will have them and you must neutralize them in case they continue to hit well. Daily fantasy players are statistics watchers so they will catch onto hot streaks relatively easy. If a hot hitter's salary has not caught up to his recent play, then it is time to select and enjoy.

These are the main 5 things I look at when trying to handicap a player's salary in daily MLB baseball leagues. As always the more research you do, the better chance you have for success. Do not hastily set your lineups fellow players. If you put time and thought into your daily lineup, you have a great shot of winning that night and adding profits to your account. The MLB season is a long one and each day is a new day to win. Play Ball!

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