Daily Fantasy Baseball Weather

Handicapping Daily Fantasy Baseball Weather: Weather Needs to Play a Role in Your Roster Decisions
by Ray of RotoPicks.com

When you sit down to create your daily fantasy baseball roster you have the option to select anybody you want for that day. Obviously within reason, because you have a finite amount of money, but that is a point for another day. However, there should be more variables involved in selecting your daily roster than just picking the best team money can buy.

If you just look at stats on paper, you are not getting the full picture. There is another variable that you must keep in mind; weather. It can truly wreak havoc on a game and even worse, it can halt the event, leaving you high and dry with lost stat opportunities. In order to earn you points, the players you select must play and assuming you are selecting healthy players that are in that day's starting lineup, the weather is the only thing that can prevent you from potentially earning points. Well, aside from poor performance, which unfortunately is sometimes just as hard to forecast as the weather is. Here are some thoughts to keep in mind regarding weather when setting your lineup:

• Obviously, games that are taking place in domes eliminate the weather variable completely as do games in stadiums with retractable roofs. There is no weather related risk here and splits that show a player's performance in those conditions are available. Wind is no longer a factor and this will likely favor the pitcher. Their pitches will work as they should and the concern of a windblown home run is eliminated. This could conversely hurt hitters who would normally benefit from wind aided power. Other factors aside, having a pitcher that is pitching indoors will give you an advantage.
• Early in the season weather is often more of a factor due to the cold weather in the Northeast. It will take pitchers longer to get loose which could have a negative impact on relievers coming in cold. But once the starting pitchers get loose, they are good to go for the day and at that point they will hold the advantage over hitters. There is also the early season swing where pitchers are ahead of hitters, but in the colder weather the ball does not carry as far in some cases (except for Colorado which is altitude enhanced). Also since pitchers are not dealing with heat, their stamina will hold for longer which does play a factor the 2nd and 3rd time through the order. When the weather is cold and damp, getting jammed hurts a little more. Now that does not mean that hitters will go down looking to avoid getting jammed, but it does play a small factor in allowing pitchers a little more latitude when pitching inside.
• Conversely, warmer weather benefits hitters over pitchers for the reasons mentioned above. Pitching through extreme heat takes a toll on starters, ceding the advantage to the hitter. The ball also travels a little further allowing for an increased potential of an offensive explosion.
• The main thing to keep in mind with weather, is that when you select a player, you want them to play. Stay away from any possibilities of rain outs or rain delays. This is more an issue for pitchers if their starts get interrupted, robbing you of valuable strikeouts, innings, and potential wins.

When picking your team, weather is admittedly further down on your list of concerns and thoughts. But that does not mean that you should ignore it completely. You can give yourself a slight advantage by going with indoor pitchers and also minimize risk by avoiding potential bad weather. A lot of this information is included in various splits analysis, but it does bear an extra thought if you are deciding between two players. The power hitter playing in a 70 degree Texas should get the nod over the power hitter playing in a 40 degree overcast New York. Additionally, I would favor the pitcher in comforts of a dome in Toronto compared with the elements New York. Do not let these concerns bog you down too much, but keep them in the back of your mind as you are setting your team. Many daily fantasy baseball games come down to a guy winning or losing by one point. I've even lost by 1/20th of a point before! In summary, every single point (and fractional point) matters!

If you enjoyed this article you might like my piece on When is a Stat Sample Big Enough?.

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