There are a few ways we can go about evaluating the pitching talent in any given day, but we will start with the most basic analysis and work our way through our pitching analysis to more complex topics. The most basic aspect of pitching is determining the outcomes a pitch can bring. There are 6 basic outcomes: the pitch is a ball, the pitch is a strike, the batter swings and misses, the ball is hit on the ground, hit in the air, or hit on a line drive. We will notice that 3 of these outcomes benefit the pitcher (called strike, swinging strike, and a ground ball) while 3 benefit the hitter (called ball, line drive, fly ball). So, in the broadest sense, we want a pitcher who can throw strikes, induce swings and misses, and induce ground balls.
A study done by Dave Studeman back in 2006 determined how much of a run each scenario was worth on average. A line drive was worth about 35% of a run, a non-intentional walk was worth about 31% of a run, an intentional walk is worth about 18% of a run, an outfield fly is worth about 3.5% of a run, a groundball and a bunt are worth -10% of a run, an infield fly is worth -24% of a run, and a strikeout is worth -29% of a run. So strikeouts and infield fly balls are very strong correlations with preventing runs, while non-intentional walks and line drives have a strong correlation with creating runs.
Let us start with line drives as that is the worst outcome for a pitcher. The league average is about 21% line drive percentage (percent of batted balls that are line drives), under 17% is great, and over 23% is bad. Next, are walks and we can use the statistic BB% which is the percent of plate appearances that result in a walk. The league average is 8%, under 5% is great, and over 11% is bad. The last positive run expectant outcome, outfield flies, is measured as FB%; 35% is league average, under 30% is good, and over 40% is bad.
Next, we can look at statistics that are beneficial to a pitcher. The most beneficial is strikeouts and we should use K% as a good barometer; 16% is average, under 12% is bad, and over 20% is great. Ground balls are measured in GB%; 44% is league average, below 35% is bad, and anything over 50% is great. Lastly, we can look at infield fly ball percentage (IFFB%) to gauge how many infield flies a pitcher induces; league average is about 11% IFFB% and anything above that is a great sign for a pitcher.
Another statistic we can look at is how often fly balls head over the wall for a home run, HR/FB%. It is believed that pitchers do not have much control over how many fly balls go for home runs, so any deviation from their normal number will usually regress back to the norm (a high HR/FB rate will likely lower in the future and vice versa). The league average HR/FB% is about 11%.
Here are some stats for batted ball types from the 2014 season:
| Type | AVG | ISO | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB | .239 | .020 | .220 |
| LD | .685 | .190 | .684 |
| FB | .207 | .378 | .335 |
And here are the league averages of batted ball types:
| Type | League Average |
|---|---|
| LD | 21% |
| GB | 44% |
| FB | 35% |
| IFFB | 11% |
When we look at stats, these are some of the more important behind the scenes stats that mean more than ERA and WHIP, as those stats do not tell the whole story. After we get an idea of the competency of the pitcher, we move on to splits and matchups.
There are an infinite amount of splits to look at and you can get creative to find trends. The main splits will be how a pitcher does against lefties versus righties, how the pitcher does at home versus on the road, and the previous stats the batters have had vs. the pitcher they are facing today. We can use these basic splits to see if this is a favorable matchup for a particular pitcher.
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