Reliever Strategy

Strategy for Picking Relievers in Daily Fantasy Baseball Leagues
by Ray of RotoPicks.com

Relievers are a fickle bunch. They really are the cause of a lot of frustration for fantasy owners. There are only 30 closers, but their job situation is just incredibly fluid. To say forecasting saves is frustrating would be an understatement.

In yearly fantasy baseball leagues the emphasis on finding the next new closer takes up a disproportionate amount of time on the waiver wire compared to their actual worth. Playing in daily fantasy leagues takes a lot of the guesswork out regarding closers, but it does not mean there is no risk involved with picking closers.

When picking relievers for your daily leagues, you know who the closer is. Aside from a few situations, and these are the situations that you would stay away from. You can, with a reasonable degree of certainty, predict who will get the save opportunity that night. And since you essentially have the ability to pick any reliever you want, one would presume that you have a clear advantage and there should be no reason why you will not get production from your relievers. Unfortunately that is not exactly the case and there are a lot of variables and factors to consider when you are selecting your relievers.

• For the most part, closers are the only position on your roster that are not guaranteed to see playing time in a specific day. You are only selecting starting pitchers that are scheduled to pitch on that day, and except for an occasional hiccup, you are not selecting a position player that will not be in the lineup that day. This is where the use of Twitter and the internet in general is a huge tool to take advantage of when you're setting your daily lineup. Prior to your lineup locking you should be aware of most, if not all of the starting lineups for that day. But with a reliever, there is no way to know if they will actually pitch. There is the potential for some dead salary cap value here.
• We will assume that the relievers you have selected are all healthy and available to pitch. But what happens if their team gets blown out or their team blows the other team out? Likely that means they never leave the bench and you get zero points. What if the setup man blows the game in the 8th inning rendering your closer useless? These are factors entirely beyond your control, but there are some steps you can take to mitigate some of the risk.
• The selection pool for relievers is often more shallow than that of other positions. This often forces you to take a closer as opposed to a middle reliever or set up guy. There is a little less risk involved here as they are more likely to pitch in a tied game or when their team is behind. But the chances of them recording a save are minimal so the return is going to be less than that of a closer. If you select a reliever who strikes a lot of batters out, you can at least return some value there.
• There are two ways to attempt to hedge your bets when selecting relievers. The first is to select multiple relievers from the same team. Aside from if their pitcher throws a complete game, it is likely that one if not all will appear. You are eliminating some risk since there is a higher likelihood that at least one if not more of your relievers will see action. But you only have the potential for one save, so your reward is therefore decreased.
• Along the same lines of eliminating risk, is by selecting both closers from a specific game. Of course there is the risk there are no save opportunities, but there is a pretty good chance you will get one save. However this also limits your return.
• As with any position in a daily league, the value you expect from a position is in line with the cost you expended. The reward is high when selecting closers because for the most part they strikeout a lot of hitters and saves are worth a lot of points at most daily fantasy sports sites. But predicting them is extremely problematic. So my proposal to minimize the risk and maximize the reward, is to spend as little as possible. The extra funds available will help to improve the rest of your team, as you attempt to maximize your reward by looking for the cheapest closers you are comfortable with. These do not need to be the best closers available, just those that are decent enough that you are not afraid of negative points. As long as it appears that they have a decent chance at recording a save, go with it.

Fantasy baseball is all about maximizing your reward while trying to minimize your risk. It is a balancing act. In a daily league, the quest for a higher reward is even more crucial. Closers have the best chance at getting the most points from the reliever position, but also your best chance at getting zero points. So minimize the risk by not spending a lot of money, but maximize your return by targeting closers that are not facing each other but who have a decent chance at some saves.

Related: Choosing a Closer.

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