Fantasy QB Strategy: Air Yards
by Adam of Rotopicks.com
Most fantasy football sites display only basic player stats. Chances are you're familiar with all of them as most of them are probably used in your league's scoring system. Since these are pretty basic, dull and dont tell the full story, there are more stats you should learn about and pay attention to when analyzing fantasy QB's. Here is a useful way to look at Quarterbacks and the impact of their Wide Receivers through stats known as Yards After the Catch (YAC) and Air Yards.
QB AIR YARDS
Tons of attention is given to a stat used for Wide Receivers called Yards After the Catch (YAC). It is exactly what it sounds like - after the WR catches a ball, it equals how many extra yards he gains using his legs and with the ball in hand. It is a nice barometer for playmakers who can break a tackle and turn short passes into long receptions and/or touchdowns. When watching a football game on TV, chances are you will hear this term spoken by the announcers.
However, what you probably will not hear is its inverse. That is, we can use YAC to find a stat for the QB who threw the ball. This stat is called Air Yards and is simply the yardage a ball travels through the air before a receiver catches it. It would be equal to Total Passing Yards minus the receivers' Yards After the Catch. Basically, YAC is what the WR is solely responsible for whereas Air Yards are a product of the QB alone.
Since YAC are easier stats to find, I like to find those for a specific Quarterback's team of receivers. When you divide this by the QB's passing yards you get the percentage of yards the receivers added after catching the ball compared to the total amount of the team's passing yards. So, what's left to analyze - the Air Yards percentage, which is just the percent added to the YAC % to equal 100. This is not as confusing as it sounds.
Assume, a QB threw 100 yards in a game, all of them going to one WR. The WR is a monster who broke tons of tackles and racked up 80 yards after his catches. 80 YAC divided by 100 Passing Yards equals 80% YAC for the QB (and WR because there was only one). That leaves 20% of the yards being Air Yards (20 yards).
Now, the way you use Air Yards Percentage is to compare all Quarterbacks to get an idea of the range. At the time this article was written (5 weeks into a season), the highest percent of Air Yards to Total Passing Yards went to a QB who had about 70% of his passing yards contributed to Air Yards. The lowest was a QB who had about 39%. The average was around 45% for all QB's, with most being in the 40-50% range.
You can glean a lot of information from these numbers. First, it tells you how reliant a QB is on his receivers, which is also pretty analogous with how good his receivers are. As one would guess, the quarterback who had the highest percent of Air Yards has hands-down the worst receivers in the league... makes sense because if a whopping 70% of the QB's passing yards are just from the ball traveling through the air, it means the receivers are doing practically nothing with the ball after they catch it. On the other hand, as expected, the lowest Air Yards % QB's have stud, game-breaking WR's who can break a tackle and go the distance.
The most useful application of these stats is when receivers get hurt. If a stud QB loses a WR, some people would argue another WR could step up and do a decent job, especially if the QB is considered elite. But the answer probably lies in the QB's reliance on YAC by the lost WR. If that WR gets a large percentage of his receiving yards after the catch, the elite QB could be in trouble without him. However, if the QB has a large percent of Air Yards when throwing to the WR, it means you can argue that another WR can have some success as well, since all he has to do is catch the balls thrown to him, in order to equal the output of the injured stud. Sure, running routes, catching the ball, and targets will play a factor, but YAC and Air Yards are still useful.
Another useful application concerns the QB's opponent. If the opposing team is known for great tackling, speed, and especially great safeties, it means yards after the catch will be hard to come by. Receivers will be tackled after catching the ball. So, it would be wise not to use that QB with only 39% Air Yards (61% of his passing yards come from yards after the catch) against a good tackling defense. He may end up stuck with close to only 39% of his normal passing yardage amount if his receivers can't run after the catch.
Good luck and as always, thanks for reading!
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