Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Projectability and Certainty
by Hoai of RotoPicks.com
Whether you're buying a toaster, a car or a ham sandwich, you want to get the most for what you pay for. Fantasy sports is no different. The owner who gets the most bang for his draft choice or auction dollars are the ones who are going to be successful. Consequently, the ones who squander their purchasing resources are just "dead money" to the pot. In this article, I'm going to discuss the concept of "certainty" in fantasy sports. Specifically, I am going to build on the concept of projection by adding a level to it. Projection and certainty are fundamental concepts in fantasy, and a basic understanding of how these two concepts relate to one another will go a long way towards understanding how to be successful in the game.
Just as projection is a combination of player ability, opportunity and matchup, I like to think of value as projectability and certainty. Projectability is the amount of points a player can reasonably be expected to score given his matchup. When I project players, I like to predict the worst case scenario (the floor), the best case scenario (the ceiling), the difference between the best and worse case (the range), and the most likely scenario.
Players with high floors are usually those who do not have a negative in any of the projection factors. That is, they are average or better across the board in player ability, opportunity and matchup.
Low floor players are those with one or more negative in the three projection categories. These players run the risk of laying an egg in any given week because of a nagging injury, a change in game plan or a tough defensive matchup. Low floor players may still have value, but they come with added risk.
In order to be a high ceiling player, the player must first qualify as a high ability player. In other words, player ability is still the number one predictor of fantasy success and projecting fantasy production always starts there first. (Not that a random average player can't have a career game from time to time) But from a projectability standpoint, it's impossible to predict when these random career games happen for non-elite players.
High ceiling players are those who possess elite skill and health, have ample opportunity and can only be limited by their matchup.
Conversely, medium or low ceiling players are usually limited by their ability and only receive marginal upgrades from a good matchup.
As previously stated, the range is the difference between the floor and the ceiling. Players with narrow ranges are easy to project, and they are valuable because they offer a level of certainty. You will often see fantasy players who are "risk adverse", target these narrow range players, especially early. Players with wide ranges come with uncertainty, but they also offer opportunity. Wide range players are where fantasy leagues are won or lost, and to be honest, correctly targeting the high risk/high reward players is the fun part of fantasy. It's fine to be risk adverse, but no one has ever won a fantasy league, or had any fun playing fantasy, by being completely safe and boring.
In evaluating players with wide ranges, I evaluate them differently in a weekly league than in a yearly format. In a weekly format, opportunity is as important as ability. This may sound contrary to what I said earlier, but I will explain. In a yearly format, patience can sometimes be rewarded, but there is no time for patience in a one week event. Locking in touches and targets and knowing that a player will get plenty of chances to succeed is paramount in a one and done scenario. For that reason, I like to think of player ability and opportunity in tandem when I draft a weekly team. These two factors set the baseline for my weekly projections, and after I assess those two factors, I then adjust for matchup.
At any given draft, certainty is often priced into the draft value of each player. Having a fundamental understanding of the role predictability and certainty play in fantasy is essential to building a sound draft strategy. Certainty offers security for risk adverse players, but uncertainty offers opportunity for those who correctly target the players with a wide range of possible outcomes. Finding a sound weekly fantasy football strategy to evaluate high risk/high reward players can not only help you win more often, but it can also add fun to the game.
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