Choosing a Defense

Weekly Fantasy Football Strategy: Choosing a Defense in Snake Drafts and Salary Cap Leagues
by Adam of Rotopicks.com

The Nature of the Defense Position

For all intents and purposes, Team Defenses are the least important position in weekly fantasy football games. They are the cheapest of the positions, with the lowest average point total. They carry a unique characteristic in that you can get negative points from your Defense, but I still maintain their importance falls well below your other positions. Regardless of which weekly fantasy football site you play at, you will never be asked to choose more than one defense. In addition, relative to other positions, defenses are usually a third of the cost as other positions (not including kicker, if the site uses that roster spot).

Using my favorite site, DraftStreet as an example, in most weeks an average Defense will cost about $3,000 and an elite defensive option can be $5,000 to around $7,000, whereas an average RB will cost about $9,000 and an elite RB can run you $15,000 and up. An average week from a Defense will most likely score you single digits, a horrible week can be a few points below zero, and an incredible week can top 20 points. On the other hand, an average week from other positions will be double digits, a horrible week will never fall below zero, and an incredible week far surpasses that of an incredible week for your defense.

Strategy

The strategy that works best for me involves 2 options:

Option 1: Often, an elite choice is priced in the middle of the pack in terms of cost. When this happens, I choose that Defense regardless of my other positions. An elite defense is a unanimous Top 3 ranked defense for that week (according to fantasy experts). The reason an elite defense is overlooked and priced too low will most likely be due to the actual matchup and not the skill of the defense. If a top ranked defense (over the course of the year) faces a low ranked offense, this will obviously be valued correctly. However, as just mentioned, sometimes mediocre defenses are priced as mediocre, yet they are an elite play because the offense they are facing is awful. When this happens and I spot that elite Defense, ranked highly on every rankings list, I am comfortable picking the Defense first and worrying about salary implications later.

Option 2: The second scenario is the opposite of Option 1. There are no obvious bargains and the Defenses are fairly priced. When this happens, choose your Defense LAST. The reason for this is the nature of the defense position and its relatively small effect on your team. You should draft every other position first, staying within the salary cap, and then fit in your Defense with whatever amount you have left. Many times a cheap defense will surprise you and score an elite number of points (due to special teams TDs, etc.). The only rule I strictly adhere to is to never play a defense that is facing an elite offense. It doesn't matter how good the defense is.

Snake Drafts

In snake drafts, salary cap is a non-issue obviously. Your strategy for choosing a defense depends on the amount of players in your snake draft and the number of elite defenses for that week. An elite defense will be roughly any top 10 overall defense who faces a bottom 10 overall offense. Sometimes, there will be one elite defensive play and sometimes, there will be close to ten. Your strategy will revolve around this "supply and demand" consideration.

The easiest scenario is when there are as many (or more) elite defenses as there are number of players in your draft. Clearly, this is common in smaller drafts (head to head, 3-man). When this happens, you can (and should) choose your defense with one of your last picks.

On the other hand, when the supply of elite defenses is smaller than the number of players in your draft, you have a situation where not everyone can have an elite defense. When this happens, you must decide when to jump on a defense. More often than not, you will see a "run" on defenses in your draft. Once the first defense is chosen (usually as one of the last positions needing to be filled for that respective team), other players will tend to follow suit and choose a defense. Determining when to choose your defense in this situation depends entirely on when your next pick is and how many elite defenses are remaining.

Another important factor in choosing a defense in a snake draft is keeping track of who has already filled their defensive slot. A snake draft is serpentine so if you choose 4th out of 6th, you have two teams that pick twice behind you. Knowing who has Defenses already is very helpful because if those two teams picking behind you already have a defense, you should NOT choose your defense if they are scheduled to pick after you in the round. In other words, you know that it is your pick, then the other two teams pick before your next pick. Since they already have Defenses, choose another position (even a bench player), let the teams behind you pick (they will almost never choose a second Defense), and then pick your Defense on the way back in the next round. Note: If you're playing in a h2h snake draft, sometimes an astute opponent will take a 2nd defense to block you from having an elite defense. This is a very strong play when there are 3 or less elite defenses going in a week.

Conclusion

Although defenses are the least important piece of your weekly fantasy football team, that doesn't mean you should ignore them completely. Just remember to use the heavy bargain if it exists; otherwise, fill your salary cap roster first and then fit your Defense in last. In drafts, choose your defense with respect to number of elite options, number of players, and which teams have already picked a Defense.

Good luck and as always, thanks for reading!

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