Weekly Fantasy Football Salary Cap League Advice: Deciding on Players
By RotoPicks.com Staff
If you've ever been to a daily/weekly fantasy football site that has online chat, you've seen it 100 times... Some guy is on there asking if he should start so and so or so and so. It usually boils down to a couple players at a couple of different positons. Heck, I often times find myself in the same position going back and forth in an effort to score the maximum amount of points out of each roster spot. We all do it... Delete, add, delete, add, delete add, all the while hoping that we're still under that magical 100k virtual salary cap. After a couple years of playing, I finally figured out a logical way to confidently determine who I'll start when I find myself in this position.
Let's use a scenario that I had in Week 8 of the 2012 NFL season:
I had my roster set with 2 undecided positions left (QB/FLEX) and $24,760 left. My dilemna was do I start Matt Hasselbeck at QB ($10,536), who is facing an Indy D that had given up 2 or more passing touchdowns in 6 of their last 7 games and LeSean McCoy ($13,417) who had been putting up decent numbers despite not really playing up to his potential or Peyton Manning ($18,283) going up against a Saints defense that had played nothing short of horrible all season and Jonathan Stewart ($5263) who the coach had hinted would be seeing a bigger load (he was going up vs. a good Bears D.)
The combination of Hasselbeck/McCoy would fit ($23.953) with extra to spare. The same was true for Manning/Stewart who totalled $23,546. Often times, salary cap space is a problem and the final two players you want usually tally more than you have left. In summary, this was a good problem to have, but man was I stuck when it came to deciding which pair to roll with.
GET A HUGE 100% SIGNUP BONUS ON YOUR FIRST DEPOSIT WHEN YOU USE PROMO CODE: ROTOPICKS AT DRAFTSTREET
So what do you do when you find yourself in this position? You start projecting! I felt that Peyton Manning was likely to pass for 350 yards and 3-4 touchdowns. These are lofty expecations, but the Saints defense was playing that bad at the time. Using Draftstreet's scoring method, I anticipated that Manning would score a lofty 26-30 points. I then looked at Jonathan Stewart, who I projected to have approx. 80 yards rushing, 2 receptions and 15 receiving yards. This gave him a projected score of 10.5. Both players combined gave me a projected score of 36.5 to 40 points.
I then pencilled out what I thought Hasselbeck and McCoy would get. I had Hasselbeck going for 275 to 325 yards and 2-3 touchdowns for a total of 19-25 points. I had McCoy going for 80-100 yards rushing, 5-6 receptions, 40-60 receiving yards and 1 TD for a range of 20.5 to 25 fantasy points. When you add Hasselbeck and McCoy together, my projections came to a projected range of 39.5 to 50 points.
Since the Hasselbeck/McCoy upside was 10 points higher, I ended up starting them. I also took into consideration that both Hasselbeck/McCoy were key components within their offenses and while Manning is a sureshot, Stewart was somewhat of a risk because he had previously shared carries with DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert AND he was going up vs. a Bears defense that could play shutdown defense if they brought their "A" game.
In summary, while I was going back and forth in my mind in what I thought was somewhat of an even trade-off, it wasn't until I got pencil and paper out which determined that the upside of Hasselbeck/McCoy was a full 25% higher than Manning/Stewart. Twenty five percent might not sound like much, but in weekly fantasy football it's HUGE. How many times have you lost by a few points or even one point. Worse yet, I've lost be less than a point before!
So, when you find yourself in a position of trying to fit a handful of players into your roster while staying under the cap, pencil out all of the combinations and your projections (keep'em legit, no dreaming!) will make the decision for you. Good luck!
Draftkings - Get a special 100% signup bonus up to $600 in FREE CASH when you register through our link and use promo code ROTOPICKS. Offers salary cap leagues, 50/50 leagues, survivor leagues and more! Earn points which are redeemable for league entries and swag!
Building a Winning Salary Cap Lineup - Adam gives great advice on how to turn that empty roster into a winner using positional point targets.
1.5 Points Per $1000 Strategy - Adam shares the secret sauce that many professional fantasy football players use to help them achieve success in salary cap leagues and guaranteed prize pool tournaments.
When Do Running Backs Decline - Rob takes an in depth look at some studies of current and past players to determine that magical age when running backs become non serviceable.
What is Fantasy Football? - We explain how the game works for those of you looking to get into the action!
What are PPR Leagues? - Ray explains what point per reception leagues are and how they work.
Daily Fantasy Football Rules - If you're going to play the game, you've got to know the rules! Elliot sets you straight on everything from salary cap leagues to snake drafts to survivor tournaments.
