Don't Take Full Season Stats to Heart
by Lootmeister, Weekly Fantasy Football Player, RotoPicks.com
It's very common to be in the lunch room at work or even a Las Vegas Sportsbook and hear some square talking about how some running back is going to "go off" this week and how stellar of a season that player has had with his massive amount of yards and touchdowns.
That player may very well be having a great season, but, it's not quite that easy. Season averages or cumulative season stats really have nothing to do with how a player is going to perform in their next game and versus a different team. And often times the player in question has not yet faced that team during the current season. Just because it was sunny yesterday doesn't mean it can't rain today.
If you want to win at weekly fantasy football, you need to learn to think objectively and parse matchups and statistics. Every game presents a completely different set of variables that one needs to take into consideration. What if the running back in question was in his 5th game of the season and had gone up against 4 of the weakest defensive fronts in the NFL? Is he really that solid in week 5 if he's going up vs. the nastiest front 7 in football? Not only might he not perform well, he might not even deserve a spot on your fantasy radar.
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Many weekend warriors bust out their credit card/paypal account and load up their daily fantasy site account balances only to get waxed by some guy like myself, who has spent an absurd amount of time doing homework not only on a game, but all of the players playing within that game as well as how those players have done historically vs. their opponent, how they've done over the course of the season, how they've played over their last few games, how the team has played over the last few games, how the player/team perform on the road, at home, off byes, etc. And that's just the beginning.
Is the team's offensive line healthy? The O-line is probably the most underrated variable in football. The offensive line of a team is it's guts. Most people only view the QB, RB and maybe a top WR being the only players who matter. The O-line is the key though. But that's for another conversation ;)
The point of this article is that I'm advising you that you need to do your homework. Don't log into your favorite weekly fantasy NFL site and start drafting guys because they lead the league in yards or touchdowns. Spend some time researching and doing your homework. Find out how good the other teams defensive front seven are. Check injury reports. See how your prospective player plays on the road vs. how he does at plays at home. Look into historical matchups to see how he has fared vs. the opponent in games/years past. As previously noted, this is just the beginning. Once you dive into stats, you can literally spend hours researching one game. You're investing your hard earned money here. Take the proper steps to not only protect your bankroll, but to grow it. Weekly fantasy football can be very lucrative to those that do their homework. Just look at the leaderboards. There's some guys making bank. Maybe one day we'll see your name up there!
Tak'er easy! - Loot
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