Fantasy Running Back Draft Strategy (For season long leagues)
by Hoai of RotoPicks.com
In the silly little world of fantasy football, RBs are the most coveted commodity. You're either ecstatic to have a good set of featured backs, or you are stuck wishing you had them. I have found out over the years that stockpiling RBs is always a good draft strategy because there will always be someone willing to trade for a RB, and conversely, it is almost impossible to trade for a decent RB unless you are willing to grossly overpay. Stockpiling RBs is a good strategy in yearly leagues, but in weekly leagues, RBs are just as valuable for the same reason: scarcity. RB is and always will be the scarcest position because the pool of quality running backs will always be a fraction of the number of quality RBs needed.
It comes down to simple math. Each NFL team starts one featured RB and one QB, but each fantasy team requires only one QB but at least two RBs. So RBs are twice as scarce as a QB by sheer number or roster spots that need to be filled. Also, QBs are almost guaranteed to touch the ball on every play, while in this era of split carry backfields, there are only a handful of workhorse type runners. Number of touches is also the reason why RBs are scarcer than receivers, WRs and TEs included. It takes a lot more touches for a RB to be fantasy relevant than a WR or a TE. It is not uncommon for an offense to produce multiple fantasy relevant receivers, but it is rare for an offense to have more than one RB who is a consistent fantasy producer. The prevalence of pass happy offenses has expanded the pool of WRs even more. And while the trend towards time share backfields has expanded the pool of viable fantasy RBs. It has also shrunken the pool of elite fantasy options at the position. All of this is just a long way of saying that RBs have always been the most valuable asset in fantasy, and even as the game changes to de-emphasize RBs in real football, truly elite RBs will continue to be the most valuable commodity in fantasy football.
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Having stated my case that RBs are still (and always will be) the most important position, it would still be foolish to blindly pick a RB early in a draft without considering other options. There comes a point where taking a WR or a QB over a RB makes sense. The secret is to figure out when. The first step is to look at the RB rankings and separate the pool of available ball carriers into tiers. Generally speaking, there are normally 2-5 elite RBs. By elite, I am talking about a workhorse who has a proven history of consistent fantasy production, is expected to get a full work load, plays on a good offense with a good offensive line and will have plenty of scoring opportunities. Basically, a RB who has no question marks about his game or situation.
The next group is the semi elite. These guys can be very productive, but they also come with a little risk. Whether it be a lack of experience, suspect offensive system, uncertain role, nagging injury or just plain lack of elite ability, these guys have minor knocks against them that keep them from being no-brainer fantasy studs. There are normally 4-6 semi elite guys.
Towards the back end of the top ten RBs and throughout the rest of the draft, you start to encounter two groups I call solid fantasy starters and high upside guys with question marks. Solid fantasy starters are guys you feel safe drafting and playing, but you can only expect moderate production. High upside guys with question marks are exactly that. These guys can make or break your draft.
Once you have separated the RBs into elite, semi elite, solid starters and high upside guys, you then need to come up with a drafting strategy. With that in mind, I have come up with a few general rules for drafting RBs.
The first rule is never pass up an elite RB. Take the elite RB, bank those points and don't look back. After the elite RBs are taken, the semi elite RBs should be taken unless you are at a point in the draft (usually after pick 4 or 5 to the end of the first round) where you can take a QB or WR who is head and shoulders above everyone else, regardless of position, and know that there is no chance that he last to your pick in the next round. From experience, taking a QB or WR this early is a risky strategy. It is much easier to grab a semi elite RB in the first round and still select an elite QB or WR in the second round than selecting a QB or WR in the first and hoping a semi elite RB falls into the second. But there will be situations where a QB or WR is so much better than anyone else that selecting him in the first round is justified. There will also be times when you are selecting towards the back end of the first round and enough semi elite RBs are on the board that one will be guaranteed to fall to your spot in round two. If there are a number of RBs remaining who are basically the same, taking another elite player at another position is the right play. Of course, there will be situations where there are no players at other positions that warrant being selected in place of a RB.
Taking two RBs with the first two picks is a safe and solid strategy. After the first two rounds are done and you are picking from the solid starter and high upside group, you should just try to fill your roster by selecting the best player overall. Selecting a RB is less important than selecting the best available player because the fantasy production usually levels out for a RB once you get past the first couple of rounds. Always remember that whenever in doubt, lean toward taking a tailback over other positions or risk getting scarce production from the scarcest position.
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