Fantasy WR Strategy: Assessing Targets and Other Advanced Stats
By Adam of Rotopicks.com
Receptions, receiving yards, touchdowns... focus on only these stats and it would be like reading only half of a book. THE most important stat for a Wide Receiver or Tight End is Targets. Targets are simply the number of pass attempts directed at a particular receiver. It goes without saying a player who caught 2 passes for 20 yards but was targeted 10 times is more valuable than a player who caught 2 passes for 20 yards but was targeted twice.
Targets are an implication of a receiver's involvement in a game. Moreover, they serve as a good indicator for future success. Checking target reports from week to week show who is gaining an increasing role in their offense as well as who is fading away.
There are many useful derivative stats gleaned from targets:
Team Target Percentage
Team target percentage is a receiver's proportion of his team's pass attempts targeted to him. It does not include passes thrown away or spiked. This is a useful stat to use in conjunction with targets. To understand why, let me propose a scenario:
A WR has seen a massive increase in targets over the last two games. On its face, this sounds like the WR has vaulted up the depth chart and has become a larger part of his offense... must be a stud on the rise...
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However, you notice that the WR has maintained the same team target percentage during those weeks. In other words, he is not getting a larger proportion of the passes thrown by his Quarterback as compared to the other receivers. When you check the box scores, you notice their team faced top offenses who took large, early leads. As such your WR's team was forced to play catch-up (i.e. had to air it out).
So, your WR's role had not drastically improved as you initially thought when you only had his number of targets. The target spike was simply due to more passing.
Catch Rate
Catch rate is the proportion of passes targeted to a receiver that are caught. That is, it is calculated as Receptions divided by Targets. This stat can help shed some light on a number of things.
- A young receiver's catch rate may increase as he learns to better use his hands, run his routes, ward off a defender, etc.
- A low catch rate among all receivers on the same team may imply that their Quarterback may be inaccurate. Or vice versa; a high catch rate could mean the Quarterback is very accurate.
- A declining catch rate may be the cause of an aging receiver who is losing his skills, or could even be a sign that a receiver is fighting an injury.
- Lower targets but a higher catch rate could mean any number of things: the Quarterback is only throwing to the receiver when it is a sure thing, the team has moved to running the ball more which has left less defense against the receiver, or maybe another receiver has seen an increase in targets (see Team Target Percentage) and as a result there is looser coverage on your receiver and he is having an easier time catching the ball.
- Higher targets but a lower catch rate could mean something like the quarterback may be forcing the ball as a result of injuries to other receivers or his RB.
Deep Pass Percentage
Deep Pass Percentage is the proportion of pass targets in which a receiver is greater than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. For me, a high deep pass percentage typically shows up for a high risk high reward type of receiver. When you need a homerun, it could help to scour the leaders in this category and hope for a bomb to your guy.
Yards Per Target
Yards per target is another stat that adds to the story. It measures a receiver's average yards gained per pass attempted to him. I like to use yards per target by following the leaders in the category and pounce if I ever see an upward trend in his targets. If a receiver averages 10 yards per target, but has seen only 4 targets a week, it would very important to notice if all of a sudden, he started seeing 6, then 8, then 10 targets.
Conclusion
This is not to say you should quote rarer stats like deep pass percentage trends to your friends at the local bar to impress them. Because, like targets, the stat is useless on its own. Understanding trends in fantasy football is like a puzzle... and each of these stats is like another piece to help you see the big picture.
Good luck and as always, thanks for reading!
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