Player Points Projections

Weekly Fantasy Football Fundamentals: Player Points Projections
by Hoai of RotoPicks.com

Although it is often overlooked by most fantasy players, points projection is the single most essential skill in a weekly redraft fantasy football league. Most fantasy players simply fill out a roster by selecting the best player available and adjust for positional need and scarcity as the draft progresses. This line of thinking is fine for novice players, but it has limitations that can be exploited by players who put in extra work to access true player value.

No one can predict the future, and I'm not here to tell you that I can or you will be able to after reading this article. What I am trying to do with this article is to explain the key concepts that will help you make more educated guesses while deciding which players to draft. Whether you do plan to do every projection manually by hand, trust in the projections systems of your favorite website or video game, or simply look at a list of player rankings, you need to, at least, understand the reasoning behind all projection systems and rankings.

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Before we delve into the primary factors I use when doing projections, I want to first define the term points projection, or projection for short. Simply stated, projection is the amount of points a player will most likely accumulate given his current situation. Projection is different than value. Value uses projection while comparing player worth compared to ranking, but projection is the rare number, or range of numbers, of fantasy points a player is most likely to produce. Notice how I wrote "most likely". There will always be anomalies throughout every game, and there will always be events, such as injury, that cannot be predicted. Regardless, I want to take out as much uncertainty when projecting points by analyzing the following three primary factors: ability, opportunity and matchup.

Ability

The first step in projecting fantasy points is to evaluate the ability of each player to accumulate fantasy points. Player ability is a combination of both talent and skill. In my mind, talent is the physical measurables (size, strength, speed, quickness, agility and athleticism) that are used to scout players during the real NFL draft, while skill is the ability to actuate physical talent into football production. Football is not track and field. It takes a requisite amount of physical ability to play football, but skill turns an "athlete" into a "player". Skills like the ability to catch can be seen on the playing field, but other skills, like knowing the playbook, have to be researched. Most fantasy owners do this subconsciously, but I like to rank each position by placing players into tiers based solely of ability as a first step.

Opportunity

Football is not played in a vacuum. Individual success is reliant on team success. Running backs don't block for themselves. Quarterbacks, tight ends and wide receivers are dependent on each other, and everyone has to play within the philosophy of the coaching staff. When you draft a player, you are also drafting his team and his role within the team, and I define opportunity as the chance a player has at success given the role he plays and the team he plays for.

The team dynamics of football fluctuate wildly during the season. As with any venture, information is power, and staying up to date with the latest information on depth charts, injuries, touches and targets and offensive line strength is the one true advantage the more diligent owners have over casual ones.

Matchup

Once you have evaluated a player's ability and his opportunity within his own team, the last factor to consider is the weekly matchup against the opposing team. This seems pretty obvious, but I wanted to talk about two important points concerning weekly matchups. The first point I wanted to talk about is comparing positional defensive ranking versus overall defensive rankings. Generally speaking, I think that team defenses are either stout or they are not, and I don't rely on defensive positional rankings unless they correlate with overall defensive rankings. A bad defense that has one strong positional ranking is probably due more to the other positional deficiencies than a positional strength. Positional rankings can be useful, but only if taken in contexts with the rest of the defense.

Another overlooked point I would like to highlight is that matchup also has to account for the opposing offense. The offense of the opposing team often dictates the flow of the game, and opposing offenses that sustain long methodical drives provide less chances than quick strike offenses or offenses that are prone to turnovers. The style of play dictated by the opposing offense can have a great affect on individual projection.

As stated earlier, projection is an educated guess as to the range of likely outcomes when factoring ability, opportunity and matchup, and information should be gathered and interpreted with these factors in mind. How these factors are proportioned is up to the discretion of each individual fantasy owner. Regardless of how you do projections, points projection is the foundation for rankings and value, and without looking at these three key factors, you are merely guessing.

More tips to help you beat your opponents: How Understanding Daily Fantasy Football Rules Can Lead to Profits.

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