Handicapping NFL Coaches
by Lootmeister of RotoPicks.com
When you log into your favorite weekly fantasy football site, you see a list of players to select from, positions to fill and a salary cap to adhere to. What you don't see is the coach factor. NFL coaches are the furtherst thing from most fantasy football players minds, but they should be.
There's an old saying in poker that goes something like "if you're sitting at the table and can't figure out who the fish is, it's probably you!" The same could be said for weekly fantasy football. The waters are infested with sharks. If you're not thinking about NFL coaches you're probably the bait.
Every NFL coach has a different philosophy and gameplan. Make sure that you're not going against the grain by selecting a player who could potentially be in a bad situation by considering the following:
Which Coaches are Grinders? Some NFL coaches are just fine with a low scoring 3 yards and a cloud of dust game plan. While this isn't an article that divulges who these coaches are (because it would eventually be outdated), (2012) NFL coaches like Lovie Smith, Mike Mularkey, Ken Whisenhunt and Rex Ryan would be good examples of guys whose players you would probably want to stay away from. In fact, other than 2012 Bears WR Brandon Marshall, I wouldn't touch any fantasy football player on any of their teams. These guys generally produce low scoring games which will surely hurt fantasy prodution. With that being said, I'm going to contradict myself by saying that I MIGHT consider a player on one of their teams if they were going up against a high scoring team with a bad defense. That MIGHT yield some decent numbers because the grinding team would probably be forced to throw and their players would probably have some decent salary cap value.
Conversely, it's important to know which coaches are out to light up the scoreboard. Guys like (2012) Bill Bellichick run high flying aerial attacks where their team moves the ball frequently and players rack of massive point opportunities. Run and shoot, west coast offenses are where you want to be sniffing around. These players will likely have higher salaries, but it's all relative as their opportunities are much greater.
Another variable to take into consideration are which coaches sit or leave their starters in when they have fat leads. Smart coaches will rest starters to avoid injury if they feel that they've already got the game in the bag. Other coaches are willing to roll the dice and leave starters in during blowouts. Unbelievably, I've seen Tom Brady in games where the team is up 4+ touchdowns. In 2012, this cost the Pats their All-Pro Tight End Rob Gronkowski who got injured during garbage time. From a football purist's point of view, this is dumb football. There was no need for Gronk to be in the game. It was already "over." From a fantasy perspective, this is a dream come true. Know what each coaches tendencies are for both situations. Especially if a good team is playing a really bad team.
Another important thing to know is which coaches are willing to overuse and run their players into the ground. I liken this to putting your car in park and stomping on the accelerator until your engine blows up. Coaches like Mike Shanahan are notorious for giving their RB's a ton of carries with no regard to their future. NFL lineman are big and powerful. The abuse a RB takes from all those hits put wear and tear on the body. NFL defensive backs are fast. Getting hit by a guy running at your knees at full speed will break a RB down. Giving a ball carrier 35+ carries in a game will absolutely wreck a players career. Just ask former Broncos RB Terrell Davis. He was given a boatload of carries and he wore out long before his time. There are many more backs who fall into this category. If memory serves me correct, Chiefs Coach Romeo Crennel gave tiny RB Jamaal Charles around 40 carries a game for 2-3 straight games. This screams injury, however, it's golden for a weekly fantasy sports lineup. With 40 carries, a player doesn't have to do much to make and exceed his value for the week. Know which coaches are willing to trash their RB's. It's a variable worth it's weight in gold.
Lastly, know which coaches like to use RBBC (Running Back by Committee). Guys like Norv Turner have a 1st/2nd down back, a third down back and a goalline back. This is absolutely maddening to fantasy players and something that should be taken note of. Norv has had some great players over the years but has always been a proposition to enter with caution due to his parsing of carries. It cuts into fantasy production and is rough to win with.
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