How to Win at Weekly Fantasy Football

How to Win at Weekly Fantasy Football
by Robin of RotoPicks.com

Daily Fantasy Sports are an up and coming, fast-paced version of a long time favorite skill-based sporting game. No longer do fantasy players feel held hostage by mistakes made on a solitary August draft date. No longer do single injuries, circa Tom Brady 2008, strike teams down with a furious vengeance. Sports are an ever-evolving, always developing phenomena that present millions of opportunities for fun, money-making and team based decisions. Quite simply, daily fantasy football is a way to experience that pinch of excitement felt before every fantasy draft, the chance to control something great and more chances to win prize money!

However, just because there are more chances to win, don't presume that will automatically translate into more victories. In your heart of hearts, you're still the die-hard fan who last year picked Colt McCoy ahead of Cam Newton, Peyton Hillis in the first round, and believed Julio Jones was too slow/AJ Green didn't have the work ethic and Greg Little was last years '98 Randy Moss. Winning will require strategy, knowledge, patience, and of course luck. (and for the above referenced player, shaking that Clevland Browns fetish) There are just more chances for all of those virtues to align, and line your pockets.

With the season fast approaching, here are some quick tips to ensure you are on the receiving end of the first prize in your WEEKLY NFL FANTASY league, more than once this season.

ANALYZE! DON'T LEARN!

Within the first level of research, fantasy players are presented with an infinite amount of statistics. Using these statistics to make fantasy-based decisions is a HUGE part of winning. However, how are you putting your analysis into action? Are there stories behind these numbers that are not showing up in the quick hitting bits of information "gold" espn.com's sports ticker provides. How much is quarterback A's YPG number inflated by his week 2 shootout? Is it relevant Team B's run defense is first in the league against a high volume aerial attack? Is Team B's run defense first in the league because of that stud defensive tackle, or because their secondary is so weak that teams throw 50 times a game against them? Statistics and rankings only go so far, it is how the player analyzes them and puts this analysis into action that becomes relevant. Doing your homework and possessing large quantities of knowledge provide you better opportunities to win your weekly matchups.

Example: Through 5 games: QB A leads the league in YPG. He has thrown for 13 touchdowns against 2 interceptions. He faces the 20th ranked passing defense in the league.

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Through 5 games: QB B is 12th in the league in YPG. He has thrown for 9 touchdowns against 4 interceptions. He faces the 3rd ranked passing defense in the league.

This is typically how major sports sites will provide information. Seems like a no-brainer huh? QB A is clearly an elite quarterback, and QB B is providing numbers usually seen by bye week replacements and backups.

But what if QB A's numbers were inflated by huge yardage in week 1 and 2, numbers out of the norm for this QB. What if QB 2's running back chewed up the clock for 183 yards in week 3, meaning only 165 yards of game management were required through the air? Did QB 1 take advantage of the leagues softest schedule through the first 5 weeks throwing for 4 TDS in weeks 1 and 4 and 3 in week 2? How many tips have defenses had on each QB? QB'S who throw the ball off defenders hands often evolve into QB'S who throw the ball into defenders hands and if QB 1 is a slinger who's had good luck, do you believe that luck will continue? If Pittsburgh was the 20th ranked defense in the league and St. Louis was the 3rd, how much weight would you put on past seasons of success and reputation?

WEEKLY MATCHUPS CARRY EXTRA IMPACT

In the old format of Fantasy Football, players were often advised to ride their superstars throughout the season. You were assured that the law of averages clearly makes sticking with your studs the favorable decision over changing players week to week based on their matchups. Well, in this format your league is over in a week. You get one shot for greatness (until next weekend), so why not go for broke? If you love Tony Romo and play him every week; over the season you will see above average-great statistical production from your quarterback position. But can you foresee individual week duds, playing against the NFC East's pass rush and improved secondaries? With your money and weekly matchup on the line can you see him leaving Sunday Night Football early with an injury as JPP/Jason Babin comes crushing down on him? In NFL's week 13, are you sticking with Romo over unproven 28 year old rookie Brandon Weeden? (check the matchup) Never before has it been so important to study the weekly matchups your players face and analyze what you are seeing.

INJURIES

Be smart. Read the injury report. A LOT. OFTEN. Any player you consider drafting that appears on an injury report, research research RESEARCH! Gather as much information as possible and as accurate of information as possible. Ever been told by YahooSports about a players practice week, how optimistic the coach was, how spry the player looked in day before run-throughs, only to have that player be announced as an injury scratch an hour before the game?

Maybe in a 17 week, you can afford a goose-egg from your RB1 once, not anymore. Know what kinds of injuries cause what kinds of affects. Running backs often fight through broken fingers, but ankle injuries are a lot tougher on them. That stud WR with great break-away speed, WILL be affected for weeks by ACL injuries. Quarterbacks with concussions, red flag! Belichick's injury report, often look like an AFC PRO BOWL squad, but legitimate; often not. Questionable is intended to mean a player is a 50-50 play, what coaches often list players at questionable knowing they will play (the BIG HOODIE above), what coaches often list players at questionable as a means of intimidating other teams defensive preparation, knowing he is holding that player out (anybody facing Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy or Desean Jackson this year will probably experience)?

The full spectrum of injuries and possessing knowledge about them is vital in any fantasy game. In a league with cash on the line weekly, those bumps and bruises that impact performance can be the difference between glory, and defeat.

KNOW YOUR STADIUM

Late season matchup. Denver Broncos against Oakland Raiders. Think of your key players in this game. Manning, Palmer, McFadden, Thomas, Heyward Bey etc etc. How much weight do you place simply, on where this game is played? If the game is in Denver, have the elements, climate or temperature began the inevitable statistical decline in Peyton's passing stats? Is "THE BLACK HOLE" a little too intimidating for Denver's up and coming receivers? What (potential) three injuries is McFadden dealing with... a concussion on the cold Denver floor could be a disaster, snow doesn't help the acceleration after the first cut but it could help the short passing game he thrives in. Simply switching the stadium on these two teams in their hypothetical matchup seemingly has endless effects on your fantasy outcome. When making personnel decisions, put yourself in that players shoes, close your eyes, hear the stadium erupt, feel the air on your face and determine, if I were this exact player what conditions orf actors am I worried about? Now as a WEEKLY NFL FANTASY owner, worry about them. Adjust accordingly.

QUICK HITTERS

QB IS A MUST- It's not unheard of for a quarterback to toss 4 touchdowns in a single game. It is rare to see a running back or wide receiver break off a game like that. Having good production from your QB is a must. To your advantage however, QB's tend to be the most easy to predict success for. Often times great QB's playing teams with poor ranked or injured secondaries strike it big.

Want to enjoy your QB's monster game even more? Find which WR/TE is going to benefit the most and enjoy watching your matchup score explode with each double-touchdown play! Conversely, did your opponent pick the QB you wanted? Minimalize his impact by selecting the WR/TE catching those TD's. When that qb scores, so do you!

PARLAY OTHER PEOPLES KNOWLEDGE

One quick way to see which team has players set for a huge fantasy day is check the Las Vegas Oddsmakers reports. Players in high stakes skill based games or in environments such as Las Vegas often know their stuff. Has Vegas put the OVER/UNDER score for Carolina and New Orleans at a whopping 72 points? It would seem like people are trying to tell you that a few players in that game are going to score touchdowns. Touchdowns you surely could use in your weekly matchup. Not interested in what Vegas oddsmakers have to say? Then stay right on the webpage of your favorite Daily Fantasy site. See what players are trending in being drafted, or what players have high usage rates for the week. Your fellow competitors often do the same research, from the same sites as you. If a large percentage of them are interpreting this information into picking certain players, there are probably reasons why.

SALARY CAP LEAGUE?

Nobody's perfect. Not even the good people at your chosen website that set the costs of players each week. If you have time, it is only to your benefit to fine tooth comb examine these lists as you may find gems who have been set way too low, or maybe a player you keyed in on as a sleeper now costs too much for you to take that chance. The price of a player doesn't just impact your team based on that players production, but what you can gain or lose in your later picks because of the money already lost.

Team A spends $50.00 in round 1. $40.00 in round 2. $30.00 in round 3. For 100 fantasy points.

Team B spends $40.00 in round 1. $30.00 in round 2. $15.00 in round 3. For 90 fantasy points.

Obviously you would prefer to be the team with the higher fantasy total, but Team B is only 10 points behind with an extra 35.00 to fill their roster. $35.00 in this league is about the cost of an early draft pick type talent.

All the above tips and information are merely a guide or suggestion. This is your league, your cash, your great time so make it count! Of course, the best piece of advice I can give you for improving and succeeding in your league is to get out there, make mistakes, pick lots of teams and see what works and what doesn't. Happy drafting, and enjoy your season! All 17 of them.

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