How Weather Affects Football Games
By Ray of RotoPicks.com
Weather affects a team's game plan. That much is clear. In turn, said game plan impacts the statistics generated from the game. But even if the game plan attempts to circumvent the weather, the weather often has a mind of it's own and will impact the game regardless.
The question then to fantasy owners is what will you do with this information? There is more information out there than owners sometimes know what to do with. In an effort to avoid information overload there is some information that can be avoided, but weather is not one of them.
When it comes to weather, the forecast is cut and dry. There is no analysis necessary nor are there ten different statistics and rankings available dissecting the weather. You know if it is going to be hot or cold, sunny or cloudy, windy, rainy, snowy, or any other permutations and combinations of weather that exist.
Obviously if a team is playing in a dome, then that is the ideal condition for offense and statistics to be generated. If all games were played in a dome, then this article would not be necessary, but that is not the case. So let's take a look at some of the main weather categories that your players will face and could affect the game plan and how it should affect the construction of your team.
Heat (A day Without Precipitation)
Most football players grow up in the south, so they are accustomed to the heat. But that doesn't mean they respond well to playing in heat in all cases, especially the bigger guys. As the game progresses it becomes easier to wear down opposing defenses. A hot clear day could in fact be the best thing for an offense aside from playing in a dome.
As it is, the no huddle offense is becoming increasingly more prevalent. In that situation, the offense is clearly in control and the defense is forced into a reactionary position. When there is no precipitation or other weather variables, that is the perfect condition for a no huddle offense. That either eliminates or hinders defensive substitutions and gives the personnel advantage to the offense. The offense can then exploit the mismatches which will produce desirable fantasy results. The defense will also tire more easily which will lead to more big plays for the offense.
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When the no huddle offense is run, that means you can expect a lot of points to be scored and a lot of offensive plays to be run. As a fantasy player, this is what you want to happen.
If you are running a lot of plays and putting a lot of pressure on the opposing defense, they will clearly tire and wear down by the 4th quarter. That means that as the game draws to a conclusion, you can expect your running back to do some serious damage.
Aside from a game in dome, this is the perfect fantasy scenario. You can expect a lot of offense from all skill positions and there are really not many drawbacks here.
Rain and Snow
When precipitation starts to fall, it is more advantageous to have your fantasy players playing on field turf as opposed to grass, but neither are the ideal condition for explosive plays and points to be scored. Be sure to always check weather reports and try to avoid drafting players in these situations at all costs!
Moisture is not conducive to throwing or catching a football so adjustments are made. But that does not mean the passing offense is completely voided by rain or snow. You just need to be aware of how it will be impacted. Teams will opt for higher percentage passes because some of the precision is lost when a quarterback is throwing a wet ball. This is a setback for sure, but it is not what you must be most concerned about when it is raining or snowing.
Rain and snow will make the playing surface slippery which is not good for fantasy statistics. Traction will be lost, it will be harder for ball carriers and receivers to make cuts, pass patterns will be harder to run, and players will slip. Receiver's yards per catch will be decreased and big plays will be reduced. Runners that run north to south will fare better in this type of condition as well as receivers who rely more on short to intermediate route running. However, precipitation alone is not the worst thing that can happen to fantasy owners. That is wind.
Wind
This is the single factor that will not only limit and hinder the vertical passing game, but it could shut it down. When rain and snow is falling, the ball can still be thrown deep and vertical routes can be run, but that is something that is severely limited if not eliminated by wind.
As the wind gusts, that is bad news for downfield passing games. That means that the passing game turns into screen passes and routes for the most part that are not more than ten or fifteen yards. A quarterback's passing yardage will be down, receivers might have a lot of catches, but their yardage totals will not be there. The focus will be more on tight ends, running backs, and more possession type receivers.
This will also mean running backs will be a lot busier. Not only will teams be relying on their ground games a lot more, but screen passes will probably be used more frequently to open up the field. PPR owners will benefit from this as the screen pass will be used as a way to open up the field and to soften the run defense.
The downfield passing game and big receiving plays are often the things most limited by the weather. It is important to know the location of the game and the climate when making your lineup decisions because the weather does impact the performance. Running backs are often the most weather proof, but when conditions are more ideal, they often will see less work. Daily formats give you the opportunity to allow the weather along with other variables to shape your roster which is something that you should exploit. One might even consider setting a reminder for themselves to start eyeballing this variable when the nasty weather sets in during November.
In yearly formats, take a look at the schedule players are going have in November and December and where they play their home games. When composing your team, no factor, including the weather is too small to ignore. The information is there, use it to your advantage to win your weekly leagues!
If you liked this article, you might be interested in checking out another piece we have titled: Weather and Scheduling.
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