Identifying Fantasy Football Busts

Identifying Fantasy Football Busts
By Adam of Rotopicks.com

What Is a BUST?

A bust is any player that falls short of expectations, usually with the implication that he falls well short of those expectations. He can be the first round stud who gets hurt on the first play of Week One. He can be the cover boy of Madden, stricken with the "Madden Curse". Simply put, he is that black mark on your team that leaves your head face down in your hands at the end of a scoring period.

Whose expectations that player falls short of is fairly vague, but for the most part, it is mainly based on consensus expert predictions. And the results end up far below those predictions.

Why It Is Important To Identify Busts

In regular fantasy football leagues, busts serve as a tool of neglect, as I like to call it. For the most part, you are constructing a team with little regard for the other teams in your league. When you identify busts in normal fantasy football leagues, you basically avoid drafting or picking up these players. On a weekly basis, identifying busts has an analogous utility, whereby you are choosing who to avoid when constructing your weekly lineup.

However, I argue that identifying busts are much more important for weekly fantasy leagues, such Salary Cap games and Snake Drafts found on popular sites like Draftstreet.com and FanDuel.com. The reason for this is that your opponents teams and who they draft affect you in a much greater capacity than normal fantasy football. In addition, weekly leagues usually have less teams, so an opponent's roster is more impactful to your team. Instead of playing a team once in the course of 12 weeks (as you would do in a normal 12-team fantasy football league), you are competing with every other opponent at the same time in weekly leagues.

For that reason, the team that identifies and avoids busts correctly in weekly leagues can gain as much of an advantage as a team that correctly identifies a breakout star. A significant stud who busts can kill a weekly team with as little as zero points. Regardless of who you own, you are already at an advantage.

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How To Identify Busts

So, here are some red flags to keep an eye out for when trying to find busts. The more red flags a player has, the more likely he is to be a bust.

- The player is facing a top 5 defense when it comes to fantasy points against for that player's position. There are many sites who rank teams in terms of fantasy points against for each position. Find a chart with every team. Check to see the player in question's opponent and how they fare against that player's position.

- The player has a case of fumble-itis. Players who have a recent case of fumbling, especially near the goalline, have an increased risk of losing touches, especially the all-important goalline touches.

- There is in-house (reports coming directly from team sources) gossip regarding:

a. The player's lack of hustle.

b. The player's poor attitude, work ethic, or limited knowledge and grasp of the playbook.

c. A teammate, vying for the player's spot on the depth chart, and any positive news regarding that teammate.

d. The player is having off-the-field issues: not getting along with others in the locker room or huddle, legal issues, undisclosed personal problems that may distract the player.

e. Trade rumors regarding the player that may distract him

f. A Receiver (WR or TE) has seen an alarming decrease in targets.

- A Running Back has seen an alarming decrease in touches or his team is predicted to get blown out (teams do not run the ball when getting blown out)

- A RB is losing goalline carries to a backup.

- Any player over 30 years old.

- A player who is new to a team that runs a complex offensive scheme with lots of plays to learn.

- A player who is listed as Questionable or worse on the injury report.

- A player who was recently demoted on the depth chart.

- Any player on an offense that has recently lost one of their best playmakers.

a. When a team loses its QB, obviously the WR and TE are affected by the poorer passing substitute. The RB are affected when defenses know they can stack the box and focus on the run instead of the lesser passing game.

b. When a team loses a stud WR, obviously the QB is hurt. The other WR and TE may also be hurt (despite the chance for more targets) as they move up the depth chart and face stiffer CB coverage. Likewise, if a team has two legit WR threats and one goes down, the other is likely to be double teamed, with safety help over the top.

c. When a team loses a stud RB, defenses can play loose and back, knowing they can concentrate on defending the pass.

- And lastly, an interesting bust play that works more than people realize is a player who has a bye "next week". Players are only human. After grinding out half a season's worth of games, the bye week is like heaven. Sometimes in the week before, players are distracted by this. Also, they may not give go the extra mile, so as to prevent injury only one week away from their vacation. So, more often than not, players are a little more focused on getting off that field and resting as opposed to focusing on what they actually do on that field.

So, it is simple. Identify busts using these red flags. Avoid those busts. Secretly laugh when your opponent takes them. And finally, laugh harder when you roll to victory.

Good luck and as always, thanks for reading!

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