Identifying Fantasy Football Sleepers

Basic Strategy: Identifying Fantasy Football Sleepers
By Adam of Rotopicks.com

The analysis that every fantasy footballer seeks begins and ends with identifying sleepers. Regardless of league (fantasy, snake drafts, salary caps) and regardless of time frame (sleepers for this week, sleepers for the year), there is one constant that lives at the heart of fantasy football. We need to find sleepers; these are underrated players ready to break out, underperforming or disliked players that are better than advertised, and even older players who are predicted to fail, yet actually have some gas left in their tank.

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There is no tried and true method for identifying sleepers. If there was, then everyone would do it. Also, as a result, the term sleeper would be nonexistent since everyone would agree that a particular player will succeed... yet, to be deemed a sleeper, a player must be relatively unknown and/or unpopular in fantasy circles. As such, instead of going through a step-by-step method to identify sleepers (i.e. no such method exists), I believe it to be most helpful to identify "green flags". Green flags, as opposed to the more common term "red flags", are positive things that contribute to believing a player to be a sleeper.

It goes without saying, the more of these you can peg to a particular player, the more likely that player is to be a sleeper. And as a side note, a sleeper implies the player is relatively cheap, undrafted, ignored, and/or disliked. So, this is a given. Find any player that falls under that definition and start working your way through these "green flags" ...the more, the merrier.

So without further ado, and in no particular order, let's brainstorm some green flags, and find some sleepers!

Green Flags - Where Sleepers Lurk

• A player moves up the depth chart due to an injury or suspension to the player usually listed ahead of him.
• Similarly, the player atop the depth chart is struggling mightily or is rumored to be demoted or traded.
• Announcements or comments by Coaches pertaining to being pleased or surprised with a particular player's growth, work ethic, or skills
• Glowing praise by a Quarterback for one of his lesser-known receivers. Nothing spells promise for a receiver like the support of his Quarterback.
• A Wide Receiver is in his third year in the NFL.
• A player becomes a part of a new offensive system that better caters to his strengths (via trade, new offensive coordinator, new personnel).
• A Wide Receiver or Tight End who has seen a steady increase in targets.
• A Running Back who is seeing a steady increase in touches (rushing attempts and/or receptions)
• A Quarterback who obtains a new, talented receiver.
• Players who are in the last year of their current contract. Often, they outperform expectations since they are literally playing for their payday.
• Kickers who have a game in a dome.
• A receiver's stats are down from previous seasons, yet his targets and receptions have remained constant. The reason for the decline is a lack of touchdowns. This one may seem counterintuitive, but touchdowns are actually almost impossible to predict. If everyone is "down" on a player because they haven't reached paydirt over a stretch of time, yet sees significant action via targets and receptions, chances are it will even out over time and he will be a great buy low candidate.
• A Running Back, part of a committee, who is greatly outperforming his fellow backfield mate.
• A backup Running Back to a starter over 30 years old with an injury history.
• A player returning from injury who is showing good burst and change of direction in practice throughout the week.
• A player who has seemed to fatigue in recent weeks, after he has his bye week.
• A player over 30 years old continues to perform at levels to which he is accustomed.
• Number 2 Wide Receivers on the depth chart: a number 1 Wide Receiver gets the "privilege" of facing an opponent's best cornerback on any given Sunday. As a result, it is not that uncommon to see the #2 WR outperform his teammate at times when the #1 is blanketed by a shutdown CB. That is why it always useful to google "NFL depth charts". Make sure the depth chart you find has recently been updated and simply scan down the column "Wide Receiver 2". Similarly, scanning down the "Wide Receiver 3" column can yield a nice list of sleepers, especially on teams that use a lot of 3 WR sets and spread offenses.

Good luck and as always, thanks for reading!

Related: If you liked this article, you may also be interested in reading: Identifying Fantasy Football Busts.

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