Weekly Fantasy Football Advice: The QB Position
by Brandon M. of RotoPicks.com
Quarterbacks are usually the highest-scoring and most consistent/predictable fantasy players from week to week. Passing yards and TDs accumulate fast, and QBs typically score between 15 and 25 points a week. And since QBs play such a prominent role in today's NFL offenses, they have scoring opportunities on almost every play. As a bonus, running QBs are particularly valuable, as their rushing yardage and TDs outweigh passing stats.
In terms of basic advice:
Pick QBs in pass-heavy offenses. Although QBs in more conservative or run-heavy offenses are capable of posting decent numbers, the safer bet is to start a guy who will throw no matter what the situation. Some teams shift to a run-oriented gameplan once they take a lead, and this can leave your fantasy QB with a flat fantasy day.
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Pick QBs with reliable WRs and TEs to throw to. Someone has to catch those balls. If you're stuck picking between two QBs of similar quality, go with the guy who can depend on his WRs and TEs to make plays. Also, pay attention to any injuries that WRs or TEs may have suffered-a QB's stat line will suffer if his favorite target is sidelined.
Pick QBs who face weak pass defenses (or tough run defenses). It never hurts to take a QB who has it easy. A sneaky move is to pick an average QB with an inviting matchup. But don't stop there! Pay attention to run defenses as well. If a QB faces a top-ranked run defense, he may need to throw to generate an offense. To determine how easy a matchup is, check "Points Against" statistics on almost any fantasy site. Websites often provide rankings of 1st to 32nd in terms of which defense is stingiest against fantasy QBs, RBs, etc.
Pick QBs whose games are potential shootouts. It's one thing for a good QB to face a week defense. However, if the opposing team can't keep up, your QB might spend the second half handing off to kill the clock. Don't risk this. Instead, try to predict which games will involve plenty of passing on both sides. If two elite QBs duel, chances are they'll get their teams competing and scoring. Similarly, if there are two terrible pass defenses on the field, you can expect even mediocre QBs to exploit the matchups.
Consider QBs whose teams will lose big. It's uncommon for NFL QBs to post stat lines that earn them less than 10 fantasy points. Even the worst QBs will have to throw at some point, especially when playing from behind. Choosing a QB whose team will get slaughtered is actually a sneaky move. Never underestimate "garbage time" (when a losing team is down big and has to rally for points). If you're looking for a sleeper QB on any given week, it never hurts to start a guy who will find himself throwing to catch up to a superior team. Remember: if they will be down, they will be throwing.
Salary Cap League Advice
Although it can be tempting to spend big money on a high-profile QB, note that most QBs typically post solid numbers. The #3 QB for the week might score 25 points, but the #11 QB for the week might score 20. And if that #11 guy comes with a far cheaper price tag, you'd feel foolish after wasting cap space for just a few extra points. That being said, sometimes the most expensive QBs are worth the gaudy price tag: always consider the quality of the QB and the easy of the match-up.
Snake Draft Advice
In most Snake leagues it's best to wait on drafting a QB. Since QBs are more consistent and stable than the other positions, you can afford to wait a few rounds and still get a quality starter. You're much better off nabbing every-down RBs or sure-fire WRs (See Fantasy WR Strategy) with your first few picks. Unlike RBs, QB's don't have to worry about timeshares; and unlike WRs, QB's don't have to worry about fighting for targets.
Pick 'em League Advice
Since QBs are normally the most stable position, it's wise to grab QBs from any tier that offers them. It's a pass-happy league, so QBs are bound to throw 30+ times per game. That means QBs have 30+ chances to throw deep, throw to the endzone, or throw to WRs who can make plays in the open field. On the other hand, RBs, WRs, and TEs are often competing for touches.
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