Spotting Fantasy Football Sleepers - Recognizing Busts

Spotting Fantasy Football Sleepers and Recognizing Busts
by Brandon M. of RotoPicks.com

The key to having success in any fantasy league, particularly the Salary Cap and Snake Draft leagues is recognizing sleepers (players who are undervalued) and busts (players who are overvalued, fail to meet expectations). There are several factors that can help you evaluate players and determine which are due for over or under performances: injuries, age, coaching decisions, hot/cold play, matchups and your own gut instinct.

Spotting a Sleeper

The term "Sleeper" denotes a player who some owners may "sleep on" or overlook when building a team. In Salary Cap Leagues, a sleeper is a cheap guy with loads of potential for the week. If Atlanta's starting RB becomes listed as inactive, you can consider his backup a sleeper, especially if that backup has proven to be effective in his limited role. Taking sleepers in Salary leagues enables you to spend more money on studs and other sure-fire players.

In Snake Draft Leagues, it's wise to keep sleepers in mind but not to "reach" for them. For instance, let's stick with the Atlanta RB example. While the backup RB has sleeper potential, you'd be crazy to draft him in an early round, especially if there are better RBs (or better players at any position) on the board. Don't get cute. Remember that a draft pick is a ticket to any car in the lot. Don't pass up a sports car just because a friend recommended a reliable pickup truck.

Pick'em Leagues don't offer the same selection and freedom as Salary/Snake leagues, so often the weekly sleepers aren't even an option. However, depending on how you view Pick'em leagues, you can say that the whole point is to find a sleeper in each Pick'em tier. If you have to choose between six average players, your job is to determine who has the best sleeper potential.

Recognizing a Bust

The fantasy world labels major underperformers as "Busts." Note that a player who scores a few points less than expected is NOT a bust; nor is an average player who has a quiet game. In most cases busts are studs who disappoint. For instance, if Carolina's QB averages 30 points a game over the past four weeks, then he mails in a 13-point performance, he's a bust for that week. Any time you spend big on a player and get a petty payout on the fantasy gridiron, chalk him up as a bust.

Think twice before signing the highest-valued players in a Salary league. Carolina's QB may be riding a hot streak, but if he costs you one-fifth of your total salary, you'll be compromised when you spend on other positions. Plus, if that QB has a mediocre game, can you trust your bargain players to compensate? Many fantasy owners argue that the trick to winning a fantasy draft (Snake drafts included) is to make smart picks early, then win your league with middle picks, before drafting upside with your late picks. This strategy applies to weekly leagues as well. Make smart moves with your first three picks. Look for consistency and don't take unnecessary risks on any potential busts.

The nature of a Pick 'em league forces you to decide which players will be busts. If you find yourself looking at Tier 1 and thinking, "No way does the Ravens QB belong in this tier along with the Broncos QB and the Texans RB" then chalk him up as a bust and narrow your selections until you find the best option.

Tips for Spotting Sleepers and Busts

Injuries

Injuries, both minor and serious, open and shut doors for potential. A case of turf toe for an elite RB can make him the week's bust, while turning his backup into a hot sleeper. Always check injury reports daily throughout the week to determine who will be playing and at what capacity. Note that most teams practice their First and second down plays on Wednesdays, then follow it up with third down Thursday. If a rookie or new member of the offense misses mid-week practices, you'd be wise to steer away from him come Sunday. Late week scratches swing the door wide open for sleeper potential. Just make sure you pick the right replacement for the scratched player. Some backup RBs can't handle a full load, which means the third-stringer could end up cutting into his carries and/or taking on third down duties.

Coaching Decisions & Depth Chart Changes

Monitor coaches' decisions throughout the week. If there's a timeshare in Buffalo's backfield and the coach says one RB will get the majority of the carries going forward, you can do worse than to roll with him for the week. And, of course, avoid the guy who's slated for fewer carries.

Hot and Cold Trends

Let's say the Jaguars have two solid WRs. Player A has caught a TD in three straight games, but his targets and catches have declined in that span. Meanwhile, Player B has seen a steady increase in catches recently, despite not having caught a TD. If Player B is catching more and more balls from week to week, it's only a matter of time before he gets into the endzone. And even if he doesn't, wouldn't you rather take the hot, consistent guy over the guy who needs to grab a TD to have a solid game? Even the best WR's only score a TD every other game or so. Less receptions means limited upside.

Matchups

Why would you ever start a QB who averages a measly 11 points per game? Because he's set to play a bottom-five passing defense. And why pass on the top RB in fantasy, even for one week? Because he's overpriced and facing a rush defense that hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher all season long. Moral of the story is that matchups can swing mediocre QBs into fantasy glory while sending studs toward a stinker of a performance. However, always use your judgment; some studs are matchup-proof, and some bums are made for mediocrity.

Fantasy Football Betting

Featured Articles

MISC and FAQ