Fantasy Tight End Draft Strategy
by Hoai of RotoPicks.com
Maybe it is the fantasy football geek inside of me, but I think that TE is the most interesting position when it comes to formulating a draft strategy. That's because TEs seem to offer the best (and worse) aspects of the other positions. TEs are similar to QBs in that there are several successful drafting strategies for both. You can draft a TE early, middle or late and still end up with good value. TEs also offer the scarcity of running backs. Even as the NFL changes the rules to inhibit contact and to encourage more passing, the demand of elite TEs will always grossly outnumber the supply. As if that wasn't confusing enough, TEs also offer the same unpredictability as WRs because they are both dependent on targets.
The first step in determining your drafting strategy for the TE position is to understand how the production at TEs is distributed. The difference in production between the different tiers of TEs is not as linear as it is with other positions. This is due to the inherent versatility of the position. Some TEs are glorified offensive tackles. Their primary assignment is to block and occasionally snag a short yardage catch or two. These blocking TEs are useless in fantasy.
In the middle are the complete TEs. In real football, these players have plenty of value because of their ability to be effective in both phases of the game. Unfortunately for fantasy, this versatility can lead to unpredictability. TEs that are effective blockers and pass catchers see their roles change according to the game plan or even within the game itself. Most fantasy TEs fall into this middle category.
The most valuable TEs in fantasy are also the least abundant, these are TEs who are a primary target in their team's passing game. They are called "TE" by name only and can split out wide and play as oversized WRs. Obviously, TEs whose primary duties are to catch passes have the most potential to be a valuable commodity in weekly fantasy.
The different role that each TE plays for their respective team inflates the value for elite TEs. At the same time, it also deflates the value for of the rest. Elite guys like Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Vernon Davis are few and far between. I can't remember having seen more than two in any given year. One is the norm, and there are years where no TEs that meet this high standard. Due to the similarities in how they accumulate fantasy points, I will compare the value of TEs to that of WRs. Any TE that produces like a starting fantasy WR (top 20) gets a huge bump in value. A TE that projects to be in the top 5 pass catcher becomes the No. 1 pass catcher on my board. Any other TE that is projected to produce like a starting WR gets bumped up at least one tier (or 4-7 spots) among all pass catchers. It is not unheard of to take an elite TE late in round 1, especially in a head to head snake draft where there are no other tight ends that offer any value.
After the elite TEs, TEs that produces like No. 3 or 4 WRs are still considered very good. Many years, this will be the some of the best TEs on the board. TEs in this category are still valuable, but they only get a small, and not huge, bump because they lack the huge scoring potential over an average TE to justify a premium pick. By small bump I mean that if there is a tie when it comes to production, the TE position status can be used as a tiebreaker. These are the TEs that are selected during the inevitable TE run that starts in late Round 3 and last throughout rounds 4 and 5. Once the top 5 to 7 TEs are off the board, what follows is usually a mix of unfulfilled potential or unexciting dependability. When the big drop off in production occurs, it is best to just wait until right before defenses and kickers are selected to fill out your roster with whatever is left. Once the top two tier TEs are gone, the rest can be lumped into one big group.
When it comes to positional value, I seem to be a contrarian versus the rest of the fantasy world. I'll be the first to admit it. I think it is important to have an elite TE, and I value them more than most, if not all, owners. Even in the most shallow of leagues, I think that having a the best TE provides a distinct advantage over the vast majority of your opponents, and to steal a Money Ball term, I think that this is a "market inefficiency" that owners are not exploiting to the fullest. In my experience, there is usually a wide gap between the elite TEs (which there are very few) and everyone else. This gap is usually much bigger than the potential loss in production from selecting another position. After the elite TEs are gone, the rest of the pack is usually pretty much the same, and you can just fill out your roster based on who has the most points projections because there is no need to worry about TE scarcity at that point.
If you liked this article you might also be interested in checking out an article I wrote on Wide Receiver Draft Strategy.
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