Tips to Winning Daily Fantasy Football Leagues
By Ray of RotoPicks.com
A new lease on life. A fresh start. A clean slate. However you want to say it, there are some clear advantages to daily fantasy football leagues.
Injuries, they don't matter anymore. You are not stuck with an injured star player on your bench for a month; instead you get to dip into a full pool of players this week. Bye week problems, who cares. Instead of being stuck with a stud on your bench because he is on a bye week, you can just substitute him with the NFL's hottest player.
Poor performances, slow starts, missed expectations, that is all in the past. You are not stuck starting a good player with failed expectation for another week because this week you can just as easily pick up virtually any player that you want, as long as you've got salary cap room.
All of that is well and good, but if you don't maximize the positive effects of playing in daily fantasy football leagues, then they are meaningless. If you follow some simple tips in making your selections on a week to week basis, you can minimize some of the risk associated with season long fantasy leagues and maximize the value of daily fantasy leagues. Let's take a look some factors that you should consider and take into account when playing in daily fantasy football leagues.
Throw Out Preconceived Notions
Just because you drafted an underperforming elite RB in the first round of your standard league draft and an overproducing darkhorse back in the eighth round, it does not mean you should necessarily always select the perceived stud over the better performing player when compiling your daily league lineup. Using the early 2012 NFL season as an example, Chris Johnson had 186 yards rushing over 4 games (157 came in one game) while Stevan Ridley had 339 yards with 4 touchdowns. Before the season started, you would have easily thought I had those statistics backwards and would have drafted accordingly. Yes Ridley did have one game where he only gained 37 yards, but at least in my mind you should have seen that coming (more on that in a bit), so clearly Ridley has been the better and more reliable running back. So, after Johnson's dismal performance, Ridley is clearly the better running back to start, and in daily leagues, you are not stuck with Johnson as you can drop him without guilt for Ridley. But that does not mean that you should stick with Ridley over Johnson for the entire season, especially as their performances evolve. With that being said, let's take a look at my next tip following the same example.
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Be Quick to React and Allow the Market to Establish Value that can be Exploited
One of the main benefits to a daily format is the fact that you can react to trends and performances. Just as quickly as you were able to drop Chris Johnson because he was not coming close to meeting expectations, you can pick him up once again when he starts to improve. But the key is to make this transition before the market fully adjusts to the performance. You need to be ahead of the market movement. In Week 4 (2012) Johnson rushed for 157 yards. Now you can question the validity of that performance and that of the offensive line for Tennessee as well as how Johnson will perform against a his next opponent, a difficult (thru 4 games) Minnesota run defense. But the fact remains, if Johnson's performance was not in the dumps the first 3 games of the season, you would not be having these doubts since he is an elite first round quality running back. Those running backs are often a substantial percentage of your salary cap, so it forces you to make difficult choices. But Johnson, since he has only had one week that is worthy of his status, is a lot more cost effective. His Week 5 salary on most daily fantasy sites was $7,716 which was about $4,000 less than Maurice Jones-Drew, about $6,000 less than Adrian Peterson and about $9,000 less than Arian Foster and Ray Rice. Johnson is an at worst $13,000 value but is instead grouped with running backs like Jackie Battle, CJ Spiller, and Fred Jackson. Which would you rather? Would you rather have Drew Brees and Chris Johnson or Matt Cassel and Arian Foster? What group is more reliable and will get you the most projected points? Personally, I would grab Johnson while his value is still decreased despite his 157 yard performance with the expectation that he will at least come close to repeating the performance because if it were not for his first 3 weeks, not only would his value be a lot higher, but you would not be questioning his performance.
Play the Matchup Game
Just because a player is talented and has been performing well, that does not mean you need to select them each week. In standard fantasy football leagues you are bound to starting certain players regardless of their matchup based on the composition of your team. But daily leagues, you do not need to be, nor should you be, that's narrow minded. Back to the example above of Stevan Ridley. After the first two weeks, he established himself as the starting running back in New England and was valued accordingly. But heading into their performance against Baltimore, it was clear that it would not be as easy for Ridley. Since he does not have the same pedigree as running backs such as Foster or Rice, you need to pay careful attention to other factors before you make the decision to start him. Granted the inclination would be to start him since he was performing well and was a few thousand under the top backs, so Ridley would be attractive. But, you know that the Ravens have a strong rushing defense plus New England bases their personnel packages on the opponent, so one could reasonably assert that Ridley would not have much value that week (which he did not). However, the following week against Buffalo, his value returned and Ridley was again a valuable player. If you do not pay close attention to the matchups each week and adjust your roster accordingly, you are leaving serious value on the table.
Do Your Research
Quite simply, there are a number of factors which you must consider and for which the information is available in order to select the best daily football league roster possible.
Know the Injury Report
Not only do you not want to start players who might not be playing due to injury or could have a reduced role, but you want to start players that will benefit from said injury.
Know Who is Being Elevated to Starter For the Week
Whether due to injury or performance, the new starter's value is often less that other starters of the same skill level.
Know Who is Returning From Injury
Players who have missed time due to injury often are lacking in statistical categories and their value is less than it would have been had they not been injured. Get them in the lineup.
Know Who is Going to the Bench to Make Room for a Returning Player
You do not want to be the owner starting a player the week the number one guy on the depth chart returns from injury. In a yearly format you are stuck with him or are forced to drop him after there was a cost to attaining him. In a daily league, there was no such cost, so do not be a week late taking notice that your guy has been relegated back to the bench.
Know the Weather
The weather in some cases could affect the game plan. Plan accordingly.
Know the Opponent
Be aware of the strengths and weaknesses of each team and the past fantasy performances against them to pick the players that have the best matchups for that week. A poor run defense can give a marginal opposing running back a monster day. A weak pass defense can give a sub par QB 20+ fantasy points. Conversely, a strong rush defense or tough secondary can cause a strong RB or good throwing QB a rough day where they not only don't meet their valuve, but they may end up being one of the lowest rated players within their position for the week! Know the matchups! It's key!
Being successful in a daily fantasy football league requires a slightly different skill set than which is required by for a yearly fantasy football league. If you do not pay attention to these differences you will not be successful. But paying attention those differences, following those tips, going with your gut, and most importantly maximizing the value of your salary cap will lead you to victory.
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