Uncertain Scenarios

Weekly Fantasy Football Advice: How to Handle Uncertain Scenarios
By Adam of Rotopicks.com

The most difficult thing to deal with in fantasy sports (especially football) are uncertainties regarding players: specifically, injuries, playing status, depth chart positioning, etc. Being such a brutal sport, football often leaves us in the dark when it comes to "if and how much" an injured player will play in any given week. Often, you will see a player you had no idea was hurt, show up on the injury report on a weekly basis. Similarly, coaches, pundits, and even twittering players will hint at a change of playing time due to any number of reasons, including in-house competition, coaching changes, or even a change in the team's offensive game plan.

So, how do we best deal with these uncertain scenarios? Where and when do we look for advice? Whose information is reliable? It is a complex network of information when it comes to fantasy football and if you are unfamiliar with the landscape, you can easily get lost. As such, I have developed a bit of a road map to guide you on your path through the treacherous wilderness of uncertainties regarding player statuses in the National Football League.

Injuries

Before we begin, here's a little official information regarding pretty much everything a fantasy football player needs to know regarding injuries. I will not even attempt to paraphrase these since the wording is pretty easy to understand.

Injury Reports (courtesy of NFL.com)

"NFL coaching staffs are required to provide an injury report that is updated throughout the week. On these reports, players are listed as:

• Inactive (IA) - Players are officially inactive for the current game and will not play
• Out (O) - Not scheduled to play
• Doubtful (D) - Players have approximately a 25% chance of playing
• Questionable (Q) - Players have approximately a 50% chance of playing
• Probable (P) - Players are very likely to start in the upcoming week"

Injured Reserve (courtesy of Wikipedia)

"A team may place a player on injured reserve (reserve/injured list) who is "not immediately available for participation with a club". These players may not practice or return to the Active List for the rest of the season (including postseason games) that they are placed on injured reserve, but are allowed to be with the team...

On August 30th, 2012, the NFL and the NFLPA reached an agreement allowing one player placed on injured reserve to be brought back to the active roster. Provided the provisions that the player was on the final 53-man preseason roster (A rule exempted for the 2012 season), and that the injury is deemed to keep this player unable to practice or play football for an estimated six weeks, the player may be allowed to practice after Week 6, and be activated to play after Week 8."

Concussions (courtesy of ESPN.com)

"NFL rules require a player who has been diagnosed by the team medical staff as having a concussion to sit out the rest of the game. He also can't return to practice or game action until a team doctor and independent neurologist clear him."

What To Do

First and foremost, stay informed and up to date. Check NFL.com for Injury Reports and Rotoinfo.com for updates on injured players. Also, it helps to follow twitter accounts of both fantasy analysts and players in question. As an interesting side note, I once followed a Running Back on Twitter during a week in which he was questionable on the injury report. On Saturday, he tweeted something to the extent that he met a kid at a gas station who asked him to score for him the next day. Well, that made me think: would this player really tweet that if he knew he would be inactive? Of course not. So I started him and enjoyed his 2 Touchdown performance that Sunday... true story.

When it comes to playing in weekly leagues at FanDuel, I stay away from ALL players that are listed as "Questionable" or worse at the time I am choosing my team. No exceptions. I also stay away from concussion-prone players because of the rule stated above. With the league's new emphasis on protecting players, once a player suffers a concussion, his week is over. It goes without saying, that could be a killer.

Playing Time Uncertainty

The other main scenario that causes uncertainty is playing time. The main reasons are that a player has struggled, has competition, the offensive schemes are changing, the Coaches want to tweak personnel, or a player is stuck in a committee role (a role in which he shares time with another player, and there is no definite #1 starter).

I approach all of these situations cautiously when it comes to weekly leagues. For the most part, I completely ignore Running Backs By Committee. I don't care how good either one is. I also avoid any player who is announced to have moved down the depth chart. This move implies less playing time and lack of faith in the player by the head coaches. On the other hand, when a player is deemed a new starter late in the week, this is often a golden opportunity because salaries are set early in the week (Tuesday), and will not reflect the fact that the respective player's value has boosted tremendously. Lastly, in terms of offensive scheme changes, this is rare. The only change that is common concerns an adaptation to better attack this week's opposing defense. For these scenarios, use your knowledge of football and pundit advice to learn when a team is expected to throw or pass more than usual. Then act accordingly.

So, in all, I avoid uncertain scenarios unless it favors a player in question. When that happens, I look to see if they are underpriced and I pounce. For everyone else who is uncertain, I let my opponents deal with those headaches.

Good luck and as always, thanks for reading!

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