Weather and Scheduling

Weekly Fantasy Football Advice: Weather and Scheduling
By Brandon of RotoPicks.com

Fantasy football involves more than judging players and their matchups. In some cases the environment and the schedule impact fantasy stats. Rain may dampen an elite passing attack, while a four-day week will make underperformers out of everyone. When setting a lineup, take note of such outside influences:

Weather

Rain, snow, and strong wind impact the game, particularly the passing and kicking games. Lower your expectations for QBs and WRs in rough weather. The passing game will usually function regardless of the elements, but if you have other equal options in a Salary or Pick 'em league, search out someone playing beneath clear skies.

While QB and WR production dwindles in bad weather, RBs and D/STs get a boost. RBs garner more carries when sloppy weather derails the passing game and D/STs benefit from dumbed-down offenses and slick, turnover-friendly conditions. Games involving heavy rain or snow typically end up as defensive struggles, and windy conditions will make FGs difficult, thus protecting a D/ST's twelve starting points. Defensive team salaries usually range from 2,000-7000 so this can provide huge value when you take into consideation that your goal should be to score 1.5 points per $1000 in salary cap money spent.

TEs may or may not suffer from precipitation and wind. Elite TEs who are essentially WRs will likely see a drop in targets and production. However, TEs who run shorter routes and act as a QB's safety blanket will usually benefit when weather turns the offense conservative.

GET A SPECIAL 100% SIGNUP BONUS WHEN YOU USE OUR LINK AND PROMO CODE ROTOPICKS WHEN YOU REGISTER AND FUND A FANTASY SPORTS ACCOUNT AT DRAFTKINGS

While nasty weather can ruin any team's passing game, dome teams suffer the biggest blow. Teams like New Orleans, Indianapolis, etc. enjoy flawless conditions within the comfort of their own dome, but when they step outdoors for a road game, question marks arise. Can even a little wind upset the passing game? Can QBs and WRs adjust to the elements? Will there be a switch to a run-heavy game-plan? As a rule of thumb, don't expect optimum numbers from QBs and WRs playing away from their domes. These players are indeed professionals, but they get their act down to a science in weatherless domes. Mix some rain or wind into the equation and suddenly more passes hit the ground.

Short Weeks

Whenever a team has fewer than seven days separating it's previous game from it's upcoming game, that team is on a "short week." For instance, a team that plays on Monday night will have only six days (as opposed to the usual seven) until a game on the following Sunday. Even worse, teams who have an upcoming Thursday night game only have four days to prepare following a Sunday game. These accelerated weeks cause numerous problems: coaches have less time to study film and draw up gameplans, players have less time to rest and heal, and the team as a whole usually submits a sloppy effort. Thursday games are particularly hampering on offensive players. Offensive gameplans tend to come out undercooked on Thursdays, and rarely will you ever see a shootout in a TNF game. Thursday games normally play out in one of two ways: a.) a defensive struggle or b) a lopsided blowout. Wagering on Thursday guys can be risky, so lower your expectations for QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs, and seek other options if possible. Conversely, D/STs make great Thursday night starts, as offenses struggle and the scoreboard stays cold. Note: There is one benefit to playing in leagues that include Thursday NFL games... There are quite a few action junkies that will pick these players just to satisfy their appetite to have something to root for. They make GREAT opponents. Feel free to enter these leagues but keep in mind that you'll have to insert your roster early and if one of your players comes up with a late injury/absence, you'll likely be cooked.

Time Zones

Watch out for time zone mismatches. These arise when West Coast teams (i.e. Seattle, San Diego, even Arizona) travel east for a 1 PM game. West Coast teams and players have a history of struggling at 1 PM due to three hours of jet lag.

That being said, West Coast teams slightly benefit from playing night games against East Coast opponents. West Coast players enter the night games with midday energy (it's a 5:30 PM start for them) as opposed to East Coasters who are approaching their bed time (8:30 PM start). Again, this is a slight benefit, but it's one to consider if you're torn between two equal guys. Often times a H2H matchup is decided by a few points (or less). You need every advantage you can get to be assured that you're not the guy who loses by a point (or less). It happens more often than you'd think!

Bye Weeks

Bye weeks may only seem relevant to season long fantasy leagues, but the byes can affect the daily/weekly leagues as well. It's worth noting that teams coming off a bye week are generally fresher and better prepared. They have two weeks to devise a gameplan for exploiting their opponents' defenses and containing their opponents' offenses.

Also note that bye weeks create scheduling mismatches. Sometimes a team coming off a bye will face a team coming off a short week. This creates an advantage for the bye week team and a serious disadvantage for the short week team. Though you should always consider players and matchups first, make it a point to consider their recent scheduling as well.

If you liked this article, you might be interested in checking out another piece we have titled: How Weather Affects Football Games.

Fantasy Football Betting

Featured Articles

MISC and FAQ