Late Season Fantasy Football Advice: Week 17 and the Playoffs
by Brandon M. of Rotopicks.com
One of the perks of daily fantasy football leagues is that they extend beyond the conventional fantasy season. Whereas traditional leagues conclude after Week 16, sites like Fanduel offers leagues in Week 17 and the first three rounds of the NFL playoffs. While you should take advantage of the bonus coverage, keep in mind that it's not business as usual. The circumstances in Week 17 and the playoffs require a completely different approach to selecting lineups.
Week 17 Advice
Week 17 can be a blast if you know what you're doing. No week involves more potential Busts and Sleepers. Several teams will bench starters to get them rested for the playoffs. Not only does this transform a bunch of studs into Busts, but it opens the door for backups and untested players.
The key to winning Week 17 is knowing which NFL matchups are important and meaningless. Some teams will be fighting for playoff spots and you can bank on their players giving their A-game for a full 60 minutes. Elsewhere, some playoff teams have already clinched a spot. Understand that there are two types of "clinch" teams: (1) teams that have secured a playoff spot and are locked into that particular spot, and (2) teams that have secured a spot and still have a chance to jockey for a better playoff seed, even a bye or home field advantage.
Avoid the normal starters on the first type of clinch team. Even if coaches insist their starters will play the full game, you can't bank on them keeping their word-and more importantly, you can't bank on the players giving their usual 110% in a meaningless game. That being said, if starters on a clinch team are slated to sit, looks for a backup who is getting a start or seeing a significant increase in action. Then hope for something reminiscent of Matt Flynn's 6 TD performance in Week 17 of the 2011 season.
As for the second clinch group, you should start their players in most cases. As long as a team has something to play for (Home field advantage, first-round bye, higher seed), you can trust the starters to play tough. One thing to be wary of, however: depending on the day's schedule and how the other teams in the league perform, certain clinch teams may bench their starters. In particular, keep an eye on teams with 4:15 PM starts. Remember that while teams with a 4:15 PM game may have something to play for on the morning of Week 17, the outcomes of the 1 PM games may finalize playoff picture and create meaningless late afternoon matchups. Understanding who has something to play for should determine your fantasy lineup more than anything else in Week 17. Matchups become black and white when you realize which teams have no desire to win.
Playoff Advice
The NFL playoffs make fantasy a steep challenge. These elimination games tend to be unpredictable at times, with apparent defensive struggles turning into shootouts and vice-versa. On top of the unpredictability, there are fewer players to choose from, and thus a scant amount of Sleepers. With only four games going on each weekend (and just two on Championship Sunday), selection is thin in all three league types.
The Salary leagues will force you to start two of the eight starting QBs. Whereas you might target Sleeper QBs during the regular season, you have to be selective and smart with the QBs you take in the playoffs. Don't grab a guy just because he's cheap. If he's not a reliable QB, avoid him. The same goes for running backs. If you're spending big money on a RB, make sure he's on a team that's committed to the run. Teams tend to abandon the run in the playoffs, simply because they gravitate towards passing when their season is on the line. Because of this, even midcarder WRs are worth a look. TEs are as tricky as always, so don't spend big money on anything other than a sure thing. Finally, don't overpay on D/STs. Since all twelve playoff teams usually have capable offenses, most defenses will surrender 20+ points. That being said, there are usually a couple fraudulent Wild Card teams that you should start a D/ST against. In the Divisional and Championship rounds, go with something cheap and safe.
Snake leagues get all shook up because now there are only a handful of players for each position. Make it a priority to grab QBs, RBs, and maybe an elite TE early. If you don't get an elite TE, wait till a later pick and grab the best TE available. WRs are usually plentiful, so they can wait till mid-to-late rounds. As for D/STs, they're typically worthless in the playoffs since there are only twelve good teams remaining. If you do reach for a D/ST, make sure the D/ST's opponent is bound to struggle on offense. Otherwise, wait late and grab the safest D/ST available.
Pick 'em leagues become particularly challenging during playoff time. While the upper tiers usually offer star players that you can evaluate without much trouble, the lower tiers will drown you in hit-and-miss guys, backups, and D/STs. You may have to decide between a No. 4 WR, a D/ST facing a top-ten offense, and a RB who averages seven carries a game. So what do you do? Research the past three or four box scores for guys in these tiers. See how many targets these no-name WRs are getting. See if the little-used RB also averages a few catches. See if the D/ST in Tier 8 garners at least a couple sacks and turnovers, then check if the opposing offense is prone to allow sacks and turnovers. Ideally, you want to pick a low-tier guy who's guaranteed to score around 5 points. If he finds the endzone or breaks loose for a big play, consider it a bonus.
One last thing to note is that Championship Sunday differs from the Wild Card and Divisional weekends. Whereas you get the normal amount of Strategy/Snake roster slots (10) during the first two rounds of the playoffs, on Championship Sunday you only have one QB and one FLEX spot (8 spots total). Prices spike in the Salary leagues, so don't fret when you see the top QBs going for one-fourth of your total salary.
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