Fantasy Wide Receiver Drafting Strategy

Fantasy Wide Receiver Drafting Strategy
by Hoai of RotoPicks.com

QBs are the most predictable position in fantasy. Fantasy running backs are the most valuable. WRs are neither of these things. They are the most unpredictable and the most abundant. That is not to say that drafting WRs should be an afterthought, but the different scenarios for drafting WRs are predicated on how the RBs and QBs are selected before them. The same thought process holds true whether you draft WR early, middle or late. The reason you draft WR at the spot you do is because the options at the other positions are so unappealing that taking a WR at that spot is the lesser of two evils. In this article, I want to discuss the different scenarios for a WR along with strategies for maximizing value and scoring potential.

As unappealing as taking a WR early seems to be, drafting one in the first two frames of a multi team draft makes sense if the right situation presents itself. Of course, this would only be an option if you are selecting in the mid to late part of the first round and all the elite or semi-elite RBs are off the board, and there were several running backs remaining who offer similar production potential. At that point, the decision would be to take an elite QB, an elite WR or a run of the mill RB. Since a similar RB will most likely be there for the taking on the wrap around, it wouldn't be sound to reach for a RB at that point. So the decision boils down to an elite QB or elite WR. This decision often comes down to personal preference because some guys just don't like taking a signal caller that high or vice versa, but if personal preference is not a factor, the decision will boil down to how many players you value as elite pass catchers.

In any given year, there are typically one to three (and in rare cases four) truly elite WRs in the top tier. When I say elite, I mean guys who have everything in their favor. They are so talented that they win virtually every physical matchup. They play with above average or better fantasy quarterbacks who get them the ball on a consistent basis. Most importantly, a truly elite WR will always be a part of the game plan and will produce even in the most difficult situation. If you believe that a WR fits all these criteria (and there are very few - In 2013; Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Wes Welker in certain spots), then they warrant a mid to late first round pick or second round pick. It even makes sense to take two elite WRs if this particular scenario presents itself twice in rounds one and two. Taking a WR early or even two WRs early, of course, is a high risk/high reward proposition. When using this strategy, I often take an elite QB early because at that point a risk adverse strategy would not make sense because the RB pool will be down to a bunch of backups and time share guys. I wouldn't necessarily use this strategy in a year long game because it is hard to score consistently building a team this way, but since you are playing weekly fantasy football and trying to win the high point for the week and not trying to score consistently to make a year end playoff, going with a high upside QB with a high upside WR or two is a better play than going safe with no upside in this scenario.

Now if you don't go WR early, then the strategy is to just to take the best player available. This is obvious, but there will be a few things you should keep in mind. First tip is let the value fall to you and don't reach. The second is to anticipate when other owners will take WRs. Typically, a draft will start out with around 15 RBs off the board in the first couple rounds (in a ten team league) with a couple of QBs, WRs and occasional uber stud TE mixed in. Come round three, most owners have filled out their RB needs and start filling out the WR spots. The WR run in rounds three and four is more pronounced then other positions because all the good RBs are gone, QBs are selected throughout the draft and few TEs warrant a selection this early. So if you know that the WRs are going to be flying off the board, the key is to set a line of demarcation as to when the value drops off in production and would make you feel as if you were at a disadvantage. Either you need to make sure that you pick guys above that line, or you need to fill the other positions and address the WR spot later. The reason I say this is that after a certain point when the elite guys are long gone and the really good and reliable WRs are no longer there, there is usually a big logjam of WRs who offer the same value. If there is no difference in the WRs available, then it makes sense to address other positions first.

Even though WRs are a complimentary position in both real and fantasy football, that doesn't mean you can haphazardly pick the next guy on the list without thinking about how it affects the rest of your roster. Whether it be taking one early or later on, a sound WR drafting strategy will help maximize the production from your roster and give you a better chance of winning.

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